Oil Prices: Persistence and Breaks
The rise of oil prices is a main issue in contemporary economics. This study examines the monthly, weekly and daily structure in several oil prices series using a modeling approach based on fractional integration and long range dependence. The results indicate that oil prices series are highly persistent, with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1. Breaks in the series do not alter the main conclusions of this study. That means that shocks have a permanent nature and strong policy measures must be implemented to return the series to their original long term projections.
|Date of creation:||02 Jun 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.unav.edu/web/facultad-de-ciencias-economicas-y-empresariales|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2007. "Is energy consumption per capita broken stationary? New evidence from regional-based panels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3526-3540, June.
- Mohn, Klaus & Osmundsen, Petter, 2008. "Exploration economics in a regulated petroleum province: The case of the Norwegian Continental Shelf," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-320, March.
- Jing, Li & Thompson, Henry, 2010.
"A Note on the Oil Price Trend and GARCH Shocks,"
20654, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- M. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Nukhet Dogan, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA1 Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 149-176.
- Serletis, Apostolos, 1992.
"Unit root behavior in energy futures prices,"
1744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
- Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3205-3211, August.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005.
"Are Shocks To Energy Consumption Permanent Or Temporary? Evidence From 182 Countries,"
Monash Economics Working Papers
06/05, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 333-341, January.
- Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000.
"Long Memory and Regime Switching,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
- Mishra, Vinod & Sharma, Susan & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2318-2326, June.
- Boone, Jeff P., 2001. "Empirical evidence for the superiority of non-US oil and gas investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 211-226, March.
- Karbassi, A.R. & Abduli, M.A. & Mahin Abdollahzadeh, E., 2007. "Sustainability of energy production and use in Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 5171-5180, October.
- Kang, Sang Hoon & Kang, Sang-Mok & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2009. "Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 119-125, January.
- Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Long memory in energy futures prices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 146-155.
- Josu Arteche & Peter M. Robinson, 1998. "Seasonal and cyclical long memory," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2241, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Tsoskounoglou, Miltos & Ayerides, George & Tritopoulou, Efi, 2008. "The end of cheap oil: Current status and prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3797-3806, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp0911. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.