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Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana


    (University of Navarra, Faculty of Economics, Edificio Biblioteca, Entrada Este, E-31080 Pamplona, Spain)

  • Goodness C. Aye


    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Rangan Gupta


    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

This study examines the time series behaviour of South African house prices within a fractional integration modelling framework while identifying potential breaks and outliers. We used quarterly data on the six house price indexes, namely affordable, luxury, middle-segment (all sizes, large, medium and small sizes), covering the periods 1966:Q1-2012:Q1 for the different middle-segments, 1966:Q3-2012:Q1 for the luxury segment and 1969:Q4-2012:Q1 for the affordable segment. In general, there is persistence in South African house prices with breaks identified. Our results show that in the cases of affordable and luxury, shocks will be transitory, disappearing in the long run, while for the remaining four series of the middle-segment, shocks will be permanent. Hence, for the middle-segment series strong policy measures must be adopted in the event of negative shocks, in order to recover the original trends.

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Paper provided by University of Pretoria, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 201233.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201233
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  1. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
  2. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2011. "An analysis of oil production by OPEC countries: Persistence, breaks, and outliers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 442-453, January.
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  5. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2009. "Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African Housing Market?," Working Papers 149, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  6. Roula Inglesi-Lotz & Rangan Gupta, 2011. "Relationship between House Prices and Inflation in South Africa: An ARDL Approach," Working Papers 201130, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  7. Pesaran, H.M. & Timmermann, A., 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0306, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Patrick Agu Kaya, 2009. "Convergence of Metropolitan House Prices in South Africa: A Re-Examination Using Efficient Unit Root Tests," Working Papers 200922, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate," Public Policy Discussion Papers 04-17, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
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  12. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Patrick T Kanda, 2010. "Bubbles in South African House Prices and their Impact on Consumption," Working Papers 201017, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  13. Markus Demary, 2010. "The interplay between output, inflation, interest rates and house prices: international evidence," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, April.
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  19. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Manoel Bittencourt & Rangan Gupta, 2011. "House Prices and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Data," Working Papers 201116, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  20. Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2008. "Is There Long-run Convergence among Regional House Prices in the UK?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(8), pages 1531-1544, July.
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  24. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2011. "Long- and Short-Run Relationships between House and Stock Prices in South Africa: A Nonparametric Approach," Working Papers 201136, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  25. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  26. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Zahra Shah, 2010. "An In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Empirical Investigation of the Nonlinearity in House Prices of South Africa," Working Papers 201008, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  27. Rangan Gupta & Christian K. Tipoy & Sonali Das, 2009. "Could We Have Predicted the Recent Downturn in Home Sales of the Four US Census Regions?," Working Papers 200926, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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  31. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Manoel Bittencourt, 2012. "THE IMPACT OF HOUSE PRICES ON CONSUMPTION IN SOUTH AFRICA: EVIDENCE FROM PROVINCIAL-LEVEL PANEL VARs," Working Papers 201211, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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