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The Nonlinear House Price Adjustment Process in Developed and Transition Countries


  • Petra Posedel

    () (Graduate School of Economics and Business, Zagreb)

  • Maruska Vizek

    () (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb)


We use a nonlinear framework in order to explore house price determinants and their adjustment properties. We test for threshold cointegration using a sample of four developed countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Ireland) and four transition countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, and Estonia). All eight countries experienced an intensive increase in house prices during the 1990s and the first half of this decade. In addition to testing for nonlinearities, we focus on house price determinants in these four transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe. An asymmetric house price adjustment is present in all transition countries and the U.S., while no threshold effects are detected in developed European countries. In a threshold error correction framework, house prices are aligned with the fundamentals; but house price persistence coupled with a slow and asymmetric house price adjustment process might have facilitated the house price boom in transition countries and the U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Petra Posedel & Maruska Vizek, 2010. "The Nonlinear House Price Adjustment Process in Developed and Transition Countries," Working Papers 1001, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
  • Handle: RePEc:iez:wpaper:1001

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jeffrey T. LaFrance & Harry de Gorter, 1985. "Regulation in a Dynamic Market: The U.S. Dairy Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(4), pages 821-832.
    2. Thraen, Cameron S. & Hammond, Jerome W., 1987. "Price Enhancement, Returns Variability, and Supply Response in the U.S. Dairy Sector," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 83-92, December.
    3. Blayney, Donald P. & Gehlhar, Mark J. & Bolling, H. Christine & Jones, Keithly G. & Langley, Suchada V. & Normile, Mary Anne & Somwaru, Agapi, 2006. "U.S. Dairy at a Global Crossroads," Economic Research Report 7209, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. J.-P. Chavas & A. F. Kraus, 1990. "Population Dynamics And Milk Supply Response In The Us Lake States," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 75-84.
    5. Thraen, Cameron S. & Hammond, Jerome W., 1987. "Price Enhancement, Returns Variability, And Supply Response In The U.S. Dairy Sector," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(02), December.
    6. John D. Schmitz, 1997. "Dynamics of Beef Cow Herd Size: An Inventory Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 532-542.
    7. Lee, David R. & Boisvert, Richard N., 1985. "Factors Affecting Participation In The Milk Diversion Program In The U.S. And New York," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 14(2), October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Amina Ahec Šonje & Anita Ceh Casni & Maruška Vizek, 2012. "Does housing wealth affect private consumption in European post-transition countries? Evidence from linear and threshold models," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 73-85, June.
    2. Ksenija Dumičić & Anita Časni & Irena Palić, 2013. "The short-run and long-run behaviour of personal consumption in Croatia," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 21(1), pages 3-11, June.
    3. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices," Working Papers 201233, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Mei-Se Chien, 2013. "The Non-linear Ripple Effect of Housing Prices in Taiwan: A Smooth Transition Regressive Model," ERES eres2013_51, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

    More about this item


    house prices; threshold cointegration; asymmetric adjustment; transition;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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