IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_10751.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long-Run Trends and Cycles in US House Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

Abstract

This paper analyses US nominal house prices at an annual frequency over the period from 1927 to 2022 by means of a very general time series model. This includes both a (linear and non-linear) deterministic and a stochastic component, with the latter allowing for fractional orders of integration at both the long-run and the cyclical frequencies. The results are heterogeneous depending on the model specification and on whether or not the series have been logged. Specifically, a linear model appears to be more appropriate for the logged data whilst a non-linear one appears to be a better fit for the original ones. Further, the order of integration at the zero or long-run frequency is much higher than at the cyclical one. The former is in fact around 1 in all specified models, which implies a high degree of persistence of this component. Finally, the order of integration of the cyclical structure implies that cycles have a periodicity of about 8 years, but it is almost insignificant in all cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2023. "Long-Run Trends and Cycles in US House Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 10751, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10751
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10751.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2013. "Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 62-76.
    2. Orazio Attanasio & Andrew Leicester & Matthew Wakefield, 2011. "Do House Prices Drive Consumption Growth? The Coincident Cycles Of House Prices And Consumption In The Uk," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 399-435, June.
    3. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jiri Slacalek, 2011. "How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 55-79, February.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. L. A. Gil‐Alana, 2001. "Testing Stochastic Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 411-430, July.
    6. Violetta Dalla & Javier Hidalgo, 2005. "A Parametric Bootstrap Test for Cycles," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 486, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    7. Morris A. Davis, 2010. "housing and the business cycle," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Henry L. Gray & Nien‐Fan Zhang & Wayne A. Woodward, 1994. "On Generalized Fractional Processes – A Correction," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 561-562, September.
    9. Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Markov Regime Switching and Unit-Root Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 404-415, October.
    10. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
    11. Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
    12. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
    13. Giorgio Canarella & Luis Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M Miller, 2021. "Persistence and cyclical dynamics of US and UK house prices: Evidence from over 150 years of data," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(1), pages 53-72, January.
    14. Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2021. "Testing fractional unit roots with non-linear smooth break approximations using Fourier functions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(13-15), pages 2542-2559, November.
    15. Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2008. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, January.
    16. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cuñado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "Modelling long-run trends and cycles in financial time series data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 405-421, May.
    17. Ching‐Fan Chung, 1996. "A Generalized Fractionally Integrated Autoregressive Moving‐Average Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 111-140, March.
    18. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices," Working Papers 201233, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Henry L. Gray & Nien‐Fan Zhang & Wayne A. Woodward, 1989. "On Generalized Fractional Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 233-257, May.
    20. Steven Cook & Dimitrios Vougas, 2009. "Unit root testing against an ST-MTAR alternative: finite-sample properties and an application to the UK housing market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 1397-1404.
    21. Hanxiong Zhang & Robert Hudson & Hugh Metcalf & Viktor Manahov, 2017. "Investigation of institutional changes in the UK housing market using structural break tests and time-varying parameter models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 617-640, September.
    22. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Fumitaka Furuoka & Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2021. "A New Unit Root Test for Unemployment Hysteresis Based on the Autoregressive Neural Network," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 960-981, August.
    23. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-433, March.
    24. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    25. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    26. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Carlos Barros & Nicolas Peypoch, 2014. "Long memory and fractional integration in the housing price series of London and Paris," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(27), pages 3377-3388, September.
    27. Clark, Steven P. & Coggin, T. Daniel, 2011. "Was there a U.S. house price bubble? An econometric analysis using national and regional panel data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 189-200, May.
    28. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-287, August.
    29. Alok Bhargava, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(3), pages 369-384.
    30. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giorgio Canarella & Luis Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M Miller, 2021. "Persistence and cyclical dynamics of US and UK house prices: Evidence from over 150 years of data," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(1), pages 53-72, January.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2023. "U.S. House Prices by Census Division: Persistence, Trends and Structural Breaks," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(1), pages 79-90, May.
    3. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "Modeling US historical time-series prices and inflation using alternative long-memory approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1491-1511, April.
    4. Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2021. "Testing fractional unit roots with non-linear smooth break approximations using Fourier functions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(13-15), pages 2542-2559, November.
    5. Aye, Goodness C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "The efficiency of the art market: Evidence from variance ratio tests, linear and nonlinear fractional integration approaches," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 283-294.
    6. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luís A., 2009. "Further evidence on the PPP analysis of the Australian dollar: Non-linearities, fractional integration and structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1184-1192, November.
    7. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2012. "A Non-linear Approach with Long Range Dependence based on Chebyshev Polynomials," Faculty Working Papers 14/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    8. Monge, Manuel & Romero Rojo, María Fátima & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risk on the behavior of oil prices and freight rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Esin Cakan, 2015. "Structural Breaks, Long Memory, or Unit Roots in Stock Prices: Evidence from Emerging Markets," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 7(1), pages 13-33, April.
    10. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2020. "Modelling Loans to Non-Financial Corporations within the Eurozone: A Long-Memory Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 8674, CESifo.
    11. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2016. "Persistence, mean reversion and non-linearities in the US housing prices over 1830--2013," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(34), pages 3244-3252, July.
    12. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Persistence and cycles in historical oil price data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 511-516.
    13. Cho, Cheol-Keun & Amsler, Christine & Schmidt, Peter, 2015. "A test of the null of integer integration against the alternative of fractional integration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 217-237.
    14. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Trilochan Tripathy, 2016. "Long Range Dependence in the Indian Stock Market: Evidence of Fractional Integration, Non-Linearities and Breaks," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(2), pages 199-215, December.
    15. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Productivity and GDP: international evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1219-1246, March.
    16. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Trani, Tommaso, 2019. "The cyclical structure of the UK inflation rate: 1210–2016," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 182-185.
    17. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carlos Poza, 2021. "Cycles and Long-Range Behaviour in the European Stock Markets," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 293-302, Springer.
    18. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2012. "Long Memory and Volatility Dynamics in the US Dollar Exchange Rate," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 16(1-2), pages 105-136, March - J.
    19. Aye, Goodness C. & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Does gold act as a hedge against inflation in the UK? Evidence from a fractional cointegration approach over 1257 to 2016," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 53-57.
    20. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2022. "The behaviour of real interest rates: New evidence from a 'suprasecular' perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 46-64, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    US house prices; trends; cycles; persistence; long memory; fractional integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10751. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.