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All Road User Casualties (Killed) in Great Britain from 1926. Linear and Nonlinear Trends with Persistent Data

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  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

    (University of Navarra
    Universidad Francisco de Vitoria)

Abstract

This paper deals with the analysis of road casualties in Great Britain, using annual data since 1926. Based on the persistent nature of the data, fractional integration methods are used that include linear and non-linear (structural breaks) models. The results indicate that when the whole data set is employed the series is nonstationary I(1) implying permanency of shocks. However, considering data starting in 1964 we observe a significant negative time trend along with a lower degree of integration that implies transitory shocks. In order to avoid the abrupt change produced by the break, a nonlinear deterministic trend model based on Chebyshev polynomials in time is also considered with the whole sample, and though the order of integration is much lower than 1, the unit root null hypothesis cannot yet be rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2024. "All Road User Casualties (Killed) in Great Britain from 1926. Linear and Nonlinear Trends with Persistent Data," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(3), pages 631-640, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:22:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s40953-024-00398-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s40953-024-00398-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    14. Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2021. "Testing fractional unit roots with non-linear smooth break approximations using Fourier functions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(13-15), pages 2542-2559, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Road casualties; Great Britain; Fractional integration; Persistence; Breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

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