IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v64y2023i3d10.1007_s00181-022-02281-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Productivity and GDP: international evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data

Author

Listed:
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    (University of Navarra
    Universidad Francisco de Vitoria)

  • Sakiru Adebola Solarin

    (University of Nottingham - Malaysia Campus)

  • Mehmet Balcilar

    (Eastern Mediterranean University
    OSTIM Technical University)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (University of Pretoria)

Abstract

The degree of persistence of the real gross domestic product per capita, total factor productivity and labour productivity has been examined in a group of 23 developed and developing nations, as well as the overall Euro Area, by evaluating the order of integration of the macroeconomic series over the annual period from 1890 to 2019. As against the conventional use of using integer degrees of differentiation (i.e. 0 for stationary processes and 1 in case of unit roots), fractional values have been utilized. The empirical findings provide evidence for mean reversion in both total factor productivity and the real gross domestic product per capita in Chile, Germany, the Netherlands and New Zealand. The results further suggest that mean reversion only occurs in labour productivity of Australia. The non-linearity analysis shows that non-linearity is also present in the majority of the series. The policy implications of the results are enumerated in the body of the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana & Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Productivity and GDP: international evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1219-1246, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:64:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-022-02281-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-022-02281-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-022-02281-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-022-02281-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2012. "Likelihood Inference for a Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2667-2732, November.
    2. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert & Zerbo, Eleazar, 2021. "GDP per capita IN SUB-SAHARAN Africa: A time series approach using long memory," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 175-190.
    3. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-751, May.
    4. Nektarios Aslanidis & Stilianos Fountas, 2014. "Is real GDP stationary? Evidence from a panel unit root test with cross-sectional dependence and historical data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 101-108, February.
    5. Gilberto Libanio, 2005. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: theory, implications, and evidence," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 15(3), pages 145-176, September.
    6. Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Chi Liu & Shu-Chen Kang & Kuei-Chiu Lee, 2008. "Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in Latin American Countries? Evidence from a Panel Stationary Test with Structural Breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(31), pages 1-12.
    7. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
    8. Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer & Robert Tamura, 2006. "How Important are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 23-49, January.
    9. Bergeaud, A. & Cette, G. & Lecat, R., 2015. "Productivity trends from 1890 to 2012 in advanced countries," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 07, June..
    10. Johansen, Søren & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2010. "Likelihood inference for a nonstationary fractional autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 51-66, September.
    11. Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 1999. "Long Memory in Time Series of Economic Growth and Convergence," Research Memorandum 015, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    12. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:2:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Marco Letta & Richard S. J. Tol, 2019. "Weather, Climate and Total Factor Productivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(1), pages 283-305, May.
    14. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2011. "Is GDP in ASEAN countries stationary? New evidence from panel unit root tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1391-1400.
    15. Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2006. "Additional Empirical Evidence on Real Convergence: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(1), pages 67-91, April.
    16. David E. Rapach, 2002. "Are Real GDP Levels Nonstationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 473-495, January.
    17. Luis Gil-Alana & Pedro Mendi, 2005. "Fractional integration in total factor productivity: evidence from US data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 1369-1383.
    18. David E. Rapach, 2002. "Are Real GDP Levels Nonstationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 473-495, January.
    19. Seema Narayan & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "Are shocks to national income persistent? New global evidence," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(2), pages 218-230, May.
    20. Wen‐Den Chen, 2006. "An approximate likelihood function for panel data with a mixed ARMA(p, q) remainder disturbance model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(6), pages 911-921, November.
    21. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
    22. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Fumitaka Furuoka & Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2021. "A New Unit Root Test for Unemployment Hysteresis Based on the Autoregressive Neural Network," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 960-981, August.
    23. Adnen Ben Nasr & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Modelling the volatility of the Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index using a fractionally integrated time-varying GARCH (FITVGARCH) model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(14), pages 993-1004, July.
    24. Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2021. "Testing fractional unit roots with non-linear smooth break approximations using Fourier functions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(13-15), pages 2542-2559, November.
    25. Sakiru Adebola Solarin, 2017. "Testing for the Stationarity in Total Factor Productivity: Nonlinearity Evidence from 79 Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 8(1), pages 141-158, March.
    26. Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2008. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, January.
    27. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Strauss, Jack, 1999. "Is OECD real per capita GDP trend or difference stationary? Evidence from panel unit root tests," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 673-689.
    28. Jorgenson, Dale W, 1988. "Productivity and Economic Growth in Japan and the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 217-222, May.
    29. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1984. "Pitfalls in the Use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(1), pages 73-82, January.
    30. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:31:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2010. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation Of Fractional Integration With Unknown Mean And Time Trend," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 501-540, April.
    32. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Are 19 Developed Countries' Real Per Capita GDP levels Non-stationary? A Revisit," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(2), pages 1-11.
    33. Susanto Basu, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 719-751.
    34. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September.
    35. Eléazar Zerbo & Olivier Darné, 2018. "Unit root and trend breaks in per capita output: evidence from sub-Saharan African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 634-658, February.
    36. Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
    37. Chang, Tsangyao & Chu, Hsiao-Ping & Ranjbar, Omid, 2014. "Are GDP fluctuations transitory or permanent in African countries? Sequential Panel Selection Method," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 380-399.
    38. Paresh Narayan, 2008. "Is Asian per capita GDP panel stationary?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 439-449, June.
    39. Yin‐Wong Cheung, 1993. "Tests For Fractional Integration:A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 331-345, July.
    40. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
    41. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2007. "Are G7 per capita real GDP levels non-stationary, 1870-2001?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 374-379, August.
    42. Chan, K Hung & Hayya, Jack C & Ord, J Keith, 1977. "A Note on Trend Removal Methods: The Case of Polynomial Regression versus Variate Differencing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(3), pages 737-744, April.
    43. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2016. "Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 420-444, September.
    44. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    45. Bulent Guloglu & Mehmet Ivrendi, 2010. "Output fluctuations: transitory or permanent? the case of Latin America," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 381-386.
    46. Tsangyao Chang & Chia-Hao Lee & Pei-I Chou, 2012. "Is per capita real GDP stationary in five southeastern European countries? Fourier unit root test," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1073-1082, December.
    47. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
    48. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & K.G. Suresh, 2014. "Mean reversion in per capita GDP of Asian countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(1), pages 2-11, January.
    49. Durlauf, Steven N & Phillips, Peter C B, 1988. "Trends versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1333-1354, November.
    50. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, 2001. "The sources and nature of long-term memory in aggregate output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 15-30.
    51. Laura Mayoral, 2012. "Testing for Fractional Integration Versus Short Memory with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 278-305, April.
    52. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2010. "Are business cycles stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend? Empirical evidence from 79 developing countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 649-664.
    53. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    54. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1994. "On the power of unit root tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-5, May.
    55. Seema Narayan & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "Are shocks to national income persistent? New global evidence," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(2), pages 218-230, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Infante, Juan & Martín-Valmayor, Miguel Angel, 2023. "Persistence and long run co-movements across stock market prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 347-357.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "The relationship between healthcare expenditure and disposable personal income in the US states: a fractional integration and cointegration analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 913-935, November.
    3. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno & Seonghoon Cho, 2012. "The Deaton paradox in a long memory context with structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3309-3322, September.
    4. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Persistence, Mean-Reversion and Non-linearities in Infant Mortality Rates," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 393-405, March.
    5. Monge, Manuel & Romero Rojo, María Fátima & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risk on the behavior of oil prices and freight rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    6. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2016. "Persistence, mean reversion and non-linearities in the US housing prices over 1830--2013," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(34), pages 3244-3252, July.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Poza, Carlos, 2020. "High and low prices and the range in the European stock markets: A long-memory approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "Crude oil price behaviour before and after military conflicts and geopolitical events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 79-91.
    9. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2024. "All Road User Casualties (Killed) in Great Britain from 1926. Linear and Nonlinear Trends with Persistent Data," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(3), pages 631-640, September.
    10. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Robust analysis of convergence in per capita GDP in BRICS economies," MPRA Paper 86936, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Borja Balprad & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2015. "African Growth, Non-Linearities and Strong Dependence: An Empirical Study," NCID Working Papers 12/2015, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    12. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February.
    13. Abbritti, Mirko & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis & Moreno, Antonio, 2023. "Term premium in a fractionally cointegrated yield curve," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    14. Aye, Goodness C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "The efficiency of the art market: Evidence from variance ratio tests, linear and nonlinear fractional integration approaches," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 283-294.
    15. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    16. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2020. "Modelling Loans to Non-Financial Corporations within the Eurozone: A Long-Memory Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 8674, CESifo.
    17. Aye, Goodness C. & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Does gold act as a hedge against inflation in the UK? Evidence from a fractional cointegration approach over 1257 to 2016," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 53-57.
    18. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2013. "Long memory in US real output per capita," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 591-611, April.
    19. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2022. "The behaviour of real interest rates: New evidence from a 'suprasecular' perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 46-64, April.
    20. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Chang, Shinhye & Balcilar, Mehmet & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Persistence of precious metal prices: A fractional integration approach with structural breaks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 57-64.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity; GDP; Persistence; Long memory; Fractional integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:64:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-022-02281-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.