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The sources and nature of long-term memory in aggregate output

  • Joseph G. Haubrich
  • Andrew W. Lo

This article examines the stochastic properties of aggregate macroeconomic time series from the standpoint of fractionally integrated models, focusing on the persistence of economic shocks. The authors develop a simple macroeconomic model that exhibits long-range dependence, a consequence of aggregation in the presence of real business cycles. To implement these results empirically, they employ a test for fractionally integrated time series based on the Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range. This test is robust to short-range dependence and is applied to quarterly and annual real GDP to determine the sources and nature of long-range dependence in the business cycle.

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File URL: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/Review/2001/nature.pdf
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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (2001)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
Pages: 15-30

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:2001:i:qii:p:15-30
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  1. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," NBER Working Papers 1916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
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