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The sources and nature of long-term memory in aggregate output

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  • Joseph G. Haubrich
  • Andrew W. Lo

Abstract

This article examines the stochastic properties of aggregate macroeconomic time series from the standpoint of fractionally integrated models, focusing on the persistence of economic shocks. The authors develop a simple macroeconomic model that exhibits long-range dependence, a consequence of aggregation in the presence of real business cycles. To implement these results empirically, they employ a test for fractionally integrated time series based on the Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range. This test is robust to short-range dependence and is applied to quarterly and annual real GDP to determine the sources and nature of long-range dependence in the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, 2001. "The sources and nature of long-term memory in aggregate output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 15-30.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:2001:i:qii:p:15-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, pages 857-880.
    2. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 817-858.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas Apergis & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Convergence in Income Inequality: Further Evidence from the Club Clustering Methodology across the U.S. States," Working Papers 201539, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Stengos, Thanasis & Yazgan, M. Ege, 2014. "Persistence In Convergence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(04), pages 753-782, June.
    3. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Long memory in energy futures markets: Further evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 261-272.
    4. María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    5. Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon & Théo Naccache, "undated". "The slow convergence of per capita income between the developing countries: “growth resistance” and sometimes “growth tragedy”," Discussion Papers 09/03, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marinko Skare, 2014. "Long Memory in UK Real GDP, 1851-2013: An ARFIMA-FIGARCH Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1395, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Francis Ahking, 2010. "Non-parametric tests of real exchange rates in the post-Bretton Woods era," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 439-456.
    8. Laura Mayoral, 2006. "Further Evidence on the Statistical Properties of Real GNP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 901-920, December.
    9. Gallegati, Marco, 2008. "Wavelet analysis of stock returns and aggregate economic activity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3061-3074, February.
    10. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2013. "Long memory in US real output per capita," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 591-611, April.
    11. Nicholas Apergis & Arusha Cooray, 2016. "Old Wine In A New Bottle: Trade Openness And Fdi Flows—Are The Emerging Economies Converging?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 336-351, April.
    12. Laura Mayoral, 2003. "Further Evidence on the Uncertain (Fractional) Unit Root in Real GNP," Working Papers 82, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.

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