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Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: theory, implications, and evidence


  • Gilberto A. Libanio



The theme of unit roots in macroeconomic time series has received a great amount of theoretical and applied research in the last two decades. This paper presents some of the main issues regarding unit root tests, explores some of the implications for macroeconomic theory and policy, and reviews the recent evidence on the presence of unit roots in GDP series for Latin American countries. We conclude that a consensual view on many of the aspects involved has not emerged from this literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilberto A. Libanio, 2004. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: theory, implications, and evidence," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td228, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td228

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    Cited by:

    1. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3205-3211, August.
    2. P. Srinivasan & M. Kalaivani, 2015. "Determinants of Foreign Institutional Investment in India: An Empirical Analysis," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(3), pages 364-376, June.
    3. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 109-118, January.
    4. Mishra, Vinod & Sharma, Susan & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2318-2326, June.
    5. Muhammad Irfan Malik & Atiq-ur-Rehman, 2015. "Choice of Spectral Density Estimator in Ng-Perron Test: A Comparative Analysis," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 7(2), pages 51-63, September.
    6. Nyong, M. O. & Udah, E. B., 2012. "Industrial Time Series of Nigeria, 1970-2009: Evolution and Unit Root Testing in the Presence of Multiple Endogenous Structural Breaks," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1).
    7. Adusei Poku, Eugene & Broni-Pinkrah, Samuel & Effah Nyamekye, Gabriel, 2016. "Modelling and assessment of the effect of income on service exports in Ghana," MPRA Paper 72312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2011. "Energy consumption at business cycle horizons: The case of the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 161-167, March.
    9. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in US production of renewable energy permanent or transitory?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 483-488.
    10. Atiq-ur-Rehman, 2011. "Impact of Model Specification Decisions on Unit Root Tests," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 3(2), pages 22-33, September.
    11. Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in energy variables permanent or transitory? A survey of the literature on the integration properties of energy consumption and production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 371-378.
    12. Alexandra Tsiotras & Antonio Estache, 2014. "In the short run, energy efficiency concerns and trade protection hurt each other and growth, but in the long run, not necessarily so: 1980-2010 Latin American Evidence," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-38, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Will initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption be effective? Evidence from univariate and panel LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 102-115.
    14. T. Mohanasundaram & P. Karthikeyan, 2017. "Decisive Economic and Stock Market Indicators on Foreign Institutional Investments: Evidence from India," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 6(1), pages 43-57, February.
    15. P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Growth in India: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 43828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Srinivasan P., 2014. "Gold Price, Stock Price and Exchange rate Nexus: The Case of India," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(52), pages 77-94, June.

    More about this item


    time series; unit roots; Latin America;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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