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Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: a post Keynesian interpretation

Listed author(s):
  • Gilberto A. Libanio

    ()

The theme of unit roots in macroeconomic time series has received a great amount of theoretical and applied research in the last two decades. This paper focuses on the implications of the existence of unit roots for macroeconomic theorizing. It is argued that the presence of unit roots in GNP time series provide support to the general perspective adopted by Keynes and post Keynesians on output and employment fluctuations, on the non-neutrality of money in the long run, and on some economic policy issues.

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File URL: http://www.cedeplar.ufmg.br/pesquisas/td/TD%20233.pdf
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Paper provided by Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in its series Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG with number td233.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2004
Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td233
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  2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1990. "Unit roots in real GNP: Do we know, and do we care?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 7-61, January.
  3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
  4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  5. Brian Snowdon & Howard R. Vane & Peter Wynarczyk, 1994. "A Modern Guide To Macroeconomics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 450, July.
  6. Kregel, J A, 1976. "Economic Methodology in the Face of Uncertainty: The Modelling Methods of Keynes and the Post-Keynesians," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(342), pages 209-225, June.
  7. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Re-examination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(3), pages 661-680, August.
  8. Neto, Francisco Cribari, 1992. "Persistência de inovações e política econômica: a experiência do II PND," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 46(3), July.
  9. Katarina Juselius, 1999. "Models and relations in economics and econometrics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 259-290.
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  11. Paul Davidson, 1994. "Post Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 124, July.
  12. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "On the Interpretation of Near Random-walk Behavior in GNP," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 202-209, March.
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  14. Paul Davidson, 1993. "The Elephant and the Butterfly: Or Hysteresis and Post Keynesian Economics," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 15(3), pages 309-322, April.
  15. Frank Hahn & Robert Solow, 1997. "A Critical Essay on Modern Macroeconomic Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026258154x, July.
  16. McCallum, Bennett T, 1986. "On "Real' and "Sticky-Price' Theories of the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(4), pages 397-414, November.
  17. Paul Davidson, 1991. "Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 129-143, Winter.
  18. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  19. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1996. "On time series econometrics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 37-60.
  20. Rod Cross, 1993. "Hysteresis and Post Keynesian Economics," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 15(3), pages 305-308, April.
  21. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
  22. Amable, Bruno & Henry, Jerome & Lordon, Frederic & Topol, Richard, 1994. "Strong hysteresis versus zero-root dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 43-47.
  23. John Elder & Peter E. Kennedy, 2001. "Testing for Unit Roots: What Should Students Be Taught?," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 137-146, January.
  24. Solow, Robert M, 1986. "Unemployment: Getting the Questions Right," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages 23-34, Supplemen.
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