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Várakozások, bizonytalanság, valószínűség. Értekezés a kockázat számszerűsítésének korlátairól
[Expectations, uncertainty and probability. An assessment of the limits to the quantification of risk]

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  • Bélyácz, Iván

Abstract

A pénzügyi válság okainak keresésekor minden korábbinál nagyobb súlyt kap a bizonytalanság szerepének vizsgálata. A szerző gondolatmenete a bizonytalanság közgazdaságtani helyzetét tükröző ellentmondásból bontakozik ki: míg egyik oldalról vitathatatlan tény, hogy ez a fogalom a közgazdasági elméletben kulcsszerepet tölt be, másik oldalról, ennek elfogadásán túl, a bizonytalanságnak "nincs helye" a közgazdaságtani formalizált elméleti konstrukciókban. A közgazdaságtani főáramban a kockázat és bizonytalanság közötti megkülönböztetés nem történik meg - inkább a két kategória egybeolvasztására tesznek kísérletet. A szerző a bizonytalanság, a várakozások és a valószínűség kölcsönkapcsolatára épülő elemzését a klasszikus szövegek tanulmányozására alapozza. E cikk tartalmának megismerése után olyan benyomás alakulhat ki, hogy a vizsgált témakörben az elmúlt évszázadban inkább válaszra váró kérdések fogalmazódtak meg, valamint egymásnak feszülő teoretikus értelmezések, mintsem meggyőző válaszok. A szerző szándékosan tartózkodik a posztkeynesianus tan és a racionális várakozások elmélete egymást kizáró igazának minősítésétől, mindazonáltal a gondolatmenet egészét a Keynes által képviselt kétkedés uralja, s nem a racionális várakozások elméleti igazságának elfogadása. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: G32.

Suggested Citation

  • Bélyácz, Iván, 2013. "Várakozások, bizonytalanság, valószínűség. Értekezés a kockázat számszerűsítésének korlátairól [Expectations, uncertainty and probability. An assessment of the limits to the quantification of risk]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 749-780.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1398
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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