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Kockázat vagy bizonytalanság?. Elmélettörténeti töredék a régi dilemmáról
[Risk or uncertainty?. A fragment of the history of theory on an old dilemma]

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  • Bélyácz, Iván

Abstract

Az utóbbi idők ismétlődő pénzügyi válságai ráirányítják a figyelmet a "kockázat vagy bizonytalanság" régi keletű dilemmájára. A közgazdaságtan és a pénzügyi gazdaságtan Knight [1921] nyomán megkülönbözteti az ismert vagy becsült valószínűségekre alapozott kockázatot a bizonytalanságtól; ez utóbbi esetében mind a kimenetet, mind a valószínűséget ismeretlennek tekintik. Az elmúlt évtizedekben jelentős eredmények születtek a kockázat számszerűsítése, piaci árazása, megosztása és allokálása tekintetében, ennek ellenére fennmarad a kétely, hogy valójában a kockázat mérésében történt-e előrehaladás, vagy a bizonytalanság számszerűsítésére tettek eredményes kísérletet. Ez a tanulmány elmélettörténeti töredékként a kockázatra vonatkozó tudásunk szilárdságával kapcsolatos kétségeket erősíti. A kockázat mérése és kezelése - kifinomult módszertanra alapozva - hatalmas "iparággá" változott úgy, hogy a kockázat és a bizonytalanság között meglévő dilemma számos fontos kérdése mindmáig tisztázatlan. A szerző e homály eloszlatásához kíván hozzájárulni rendhagyó megközelítésben írott munkájával. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: G32.

Suggested Citation

  • Bélyácz, Iván, 2010. "Kockázat vagy bizonytalanság?. Elmélettörténeti töredék a régi dilemmáról [Risk or uncertainty?. A fragment of the history of theory on an old dilemma]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 652-665.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1183
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
    2. Langlois, Richard N & Cosgel, Metin M, 1993. "Frank Knight on Risk, Uncertainty, and the Firm: A New Interpretation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(3), pages 456-465, July.
    3. J.A. Kregel, 1998. "Aspects of a Post Keynesian Theory of Finance," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 111-133, September.
    4. Paul Davidson, 1991. "Rational Expectations: a Fallacious Foundation for Studying Crucial Decision Making Processes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Louise Davidson (ed.), Inflation, Open Economies and Resources, chapter 12, pages 123-138, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Ramsey, Frank P., 1926. "Truth and Probability," Histoy of Economic Thought Chapters, in: Braithwaite, R. B. (ed.),The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays, chapter 7, pages 156-198, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought.
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    Cited by:

    1. József Móczár, 2010. "Anatomy and Lessons of the Global Financial Crisis," Public Finance Quarterly, State Audit Office of Hungary, vol. 55(4), pages 753-775.
    2. Bélyácz, Iván, 2013. "Várakozások, bizonytalanság, valószínűség. Értekezés a kockázat számszerűsítésének korlátairól [Expectations, uncertainty and probability. An assessment of the limits to the quantification of risk]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 749-780.

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    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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