International Evidence on the Persistence of Economic Fluctuations
This paper presents new evidence on the persistence of fluctuations in real GNP. We estimate two measures of persistence nonparametrically using post-war quarterly data from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We compare these estimates with Monte Carlo results from various AR(2) processes. For six out of seven countries, the point estimates indicate that a 1% shock to output should change the long-run unvariate forecast of output by well over 1%. Low-order ARMA models yield similar conclusions. Finally, we examine the persistence in relative outputs of different countries.
|Date of creation:||1989|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Monetary Economics|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Littauer Center, Cambridge, MA 02138|
Web page: http://www.economics.harvard.edu/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:3224417. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Office for Scholarly Communication)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.