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Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model

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  • Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D.
  • Balcilar, Mehmet
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Reid, Monique
  • Aye, Goodness C.

Abstract

This paper examines asymmetries in the impact of monetary policy on the middle segment of the South African housing market from 1966:M2 to 2011:M12. We use Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model in which parameters change according to the phase of the housing cycle. The results suggest that monetary policy is not neutral as house price growth decreases substantially with a contractionary monetary policy. We find that the impact of monetary policy is larger in bear regime than in bull regime; indicating the role of information asymmetry in reinforcing the financial constraint of economic agents. As expected, monetary policy reaction to a positive house price shock is found to be stronger in the bull regime. This suggests that the central bank reacts more in bull regime in order to prevent potential crisis related to the subsequent bust in house prices bubbles which are more prominent in bull markets. These results substantiate important asymmetries in the dynamics of house prices in relation to monetary policy, vindicating the advantages of generating regime dependent impulse response functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Reid, Monique & Aye, Goodness C., 2013. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 161-171.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:161-171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.02.006
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    2. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Evolution of Monetary Policy in the US: The Role of Asset Prices," Working Papers 201343, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Kolisi, Nwabisa & Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Changes in the relationship between interest rates and housing prices in South Africa around the 2007 financial crisis," MPRA Paper 80173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Rangan Gupta & Xiaojin Sun, 2020. "Housing market spillovers in South Africa: evidence from an estimated small open economy DSGE model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2309-2332, May.
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    6. Zhu, Bing & Betzinger, Michael & Sebastian, Steffen, 2017. "Housing market stability, mortgage market structure, and monetary policy: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-21.
    7. Zare, Roohollah, 2016. "House Price Rigidity and the Asymmetric Response of Housing Prices to Monetary Policy in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 11(4), pages 401-417, October.
    8. Zhang, Xiaoyu & Pan, Fanghui, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy and output shocks on the real estate market in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    9. Beatrice Simo-Kengne & Stephen Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Evolution of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the US: the Role of Asset Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 226-243, April.
    10. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Evolution of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the US: the Role of Asset Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 226-243, April.
    11. Balcilar, Mehmet & Roubaud, David & Uzuner, Gizem & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Housing sector and economic policy uncertainty: A GMM panel VAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 114-126.
    12. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2016. "Components of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Predictability of US Stock Returns and Volatility: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantile Approach," Working Papers 201639, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Beatrice Desiree Simo-Kengne, 2018. "Inflation and Output Growth Dynamics in South Africa: Evidence from the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 143-154, January.
    14. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Asymmetric Pass-through Effects from Monetary Policy to Housing Prices in South Africa," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 16(2 (Summer), pages 123-140.
    15. Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre & Francisco J. Lozano & Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, 2021. "Prosperity or Real Estate Bubble? Exuberance Probability Index of Real Housing Prices in Chile," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-24, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; House prices; Regime switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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