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Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence


  • Gaia Garino

    () (Department of Economics, University of Leicester)

  • Lucio Sarno

    () (University of Warwick, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))


In this article, we test the view, widely held among both academics and practitioners, that speculative bubbles have characterized the time series behavior of U.K. house prices in recent times. We motivate our empirical analysis using a stylized overlapping-generations model which generates a housing demand function of the form assumed by a large literature, illustrating how rational bubbles may arise as a solution to the house price determination equation. Employing two recently developed econometric techniques specifically designed to test for rational bubbles, we then provide empirical evidence for the existence of bubbles in U.K. house prices over the sample period 1983–2002.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:70:4:y:2004:p:777-795

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rita Lourenço & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2015. "House prices: bubbles, exuberance or something else? Evidence from euro area countries," Working Papers w201517, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Day, Creina & Guest, Ross, 2016. "Fertility and female wages: A new link via house prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 121-132.
    3. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence From A Regional Panel," ERES eres2006_150, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    4. Xavier Timbeau, 2013. "Les bulles « robustes ». Pourquoi il faut construire des logements en région parisienne," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 277-313.
    5. Beaupain, Renaud & Durré, Alain, 2013. "Central bank reserves and interbank market liquidity in the euro area," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 259-284.
    6. Beatrice D. Simo - Kengne & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid & Goodness C. Aye, 2012. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive mode," Working Papers 15-26, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    7. Jorge Belaire-Franch & Kwaku Opong, 2013. "A Time Series Analysis of U.K. Construction and Real Estate Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 516-542, April.
    8. Creina Day & Ross S. Guest, 2014. "The Effect of Gender Wages and Working Age Populations on Fertility and House Prices," Crawford School Research Papers 1401, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Reid, Monique & Aye, Goodness C., 2013. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 161-171.
    10. Vogel, Harold L. & Werner, Richard A., 2015. "An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-28.
    11. Quan Gan & Robert J. Hill, 2008. "A New Perspective on the Relationship Between House Prices and Income," Discussion Papers 2008-13, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    12. Robert J. Hill & Daniel Melser, 2007. "Comparing House Prices Across Regions and Time: An Hedonic Approach," Discussion Papers 2007-33, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets


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