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Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock

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  • Chang, Kuang-Liang
  • Chen, Nan-Kuang
  • Leung, Charles Ka Yui

Abstract

This paper confirms that a regime-switching model out-performs a linear VAR model in terms of understanding the system dynamics of asset returns. Impulse responses of REIT returns to either the federal funds rate or the interest rate spread are much larger initially but less persistent. Furthermore, the term structure acts as an amplifier of the impulse response for REIT return, a stabilizer for the housing counterpart under some regime, and, perhaps surprisingly, almost no role for the stock return. In contrast, GDP growth has very marginal effect in the impulse response for all assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Kuang-Liang & Chen, Nan-Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock," MPRA Paper 23514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23514
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahdi N. Ajmi & Vassilios Babalos & Fotini Economou & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Real Estate Markets and Uncertainty Shocks: A Variance Causality Approach," Working Papers 201436, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Chen, Nan-Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2012. "The dynamics of housing returns in Singapore: How important are the international transmission mechanisms?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 516-530.
    3. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2013. "In the Shadow of the U nited S tates: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-40, February.
    4. Ding, Haoyuan & Chong, Terence Tai-leung & Park, Sung Y., 2014. "Nonlinear dependence between stock and real estate markets in China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 526-529.
    5. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
    6. MeiChi Huang & LinYing Yeh, 2015. "Should the Fed take extra action for the recent housing bubble? Evidence from asymmetric transitory shocks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(4), pages 762-781, October.
    7. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2016. "Overreaction to policy changes in the housing market: Evidence from Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 26-41.
    8. Huang, Daisy J. & Leung, Charles K. & Qu, Baozhi, 2015. "Do bank loans and local amenities explain Chinese urban house prices?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 19-38.
    9. Paul Goebel & David Harrison & Jeffrey Mercer & Ryan Whitby, 2013. "REIT Momentum and Characteristic-Related REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 564-581, October.
    10. Nan-Kuang Chen & Yu-Hsi Chou & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2013. "Credit Constraint and the Asymmetric Monetary Policy Effect on House Prices," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 431-455, October.
    11. Huang, MeiChi & Chiang, Hsiu-Hsuan, 2017. "An early alarm system for housing bubbles," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 34-49.
    12. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2011. "The nonlinear effects of expected and unexpected components of monetary policy on the dynamics of REIT returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 911-920, May.
    13. Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Reid, Monique & Aye, Goodness C., 2013. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 161-171.
    14. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
    15. Cheng, Lichao & Jin, Yi, 2013. "Asset prices, monetary policy, and aggregate fluctuations: An empirical investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 24-27.
    16. Christian Pierdzioch & Marian Risse & Rangan Gupta & Wendy Nyakabawo, 2016. "On REIT Returns and (Un-) Expected Inflation: Empirical Evidence Based on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," Working Papers 201677, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; yield curve; REITs; house prices; Markov Regime Switching;

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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