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Markov-switching Unit Root Test: A study of the Property Price Bubbles in Hong Kong and Seoul

Author

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  • Qin Xiao

    (Division of Economics,School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore)

  • Randolph Gee Kwang Tan

    (Division of Economics,School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore)

Abstract

Evans (1991) demonstrates that the unit root tests recommended by Hamilton and Whiteman (1985) and Diba and Grossman (1988) will fail to detect periodically collapsing rational bubbles. Hall et al. (1999) however show that the power of this test procedure can be improved by incorporating a Markov-switching state variable. In this paper, we apply both procedures to selected data from Hong Kong and Seoul. Both point to the possible existence of a periodically-collapsing bubble in each price series investigated, with the second procedure more precise on timing the bubble. Our Markovswitching model is validated using a symmetry test and a Wald test.

Suggested Citation

  • Qin Xiao & Randolph Gee Kwang Tan, 2006. "Markov-switching Unit Root Test: A study of the Property Price Bubbles in Hong Kong and Seoul," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0602, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:nan:wpaper:0602
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    File URL: http://www3.ntu.edu.sg/hss2/egc/wp/2006/2006-02.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beatrice D. Simo - Kengne & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid & Goodness C. Aye, 2012. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive mode," Working Papers 15-26, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    2. Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Reid, Monique & Aye, Goodness C., 2013. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 161-171.
    3. Gary John Rangel & Jason Wei Jian Ng, 2017. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Singapore Private Residential Prices: A Markov-Switching Approach," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 15-31.
    4. Qin Xiao, 2023. "Equilibrating ripple effect, disturbing information cascade effect and regional disparity – A perspective from China's tiered housing markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 858-875, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov-switching; unit root test; periodically-collapsing bubble; real-estate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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