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Markov-switching Unit Root Test: A study of the Property Price Bubbles in Hong Kong and Seoul

  • Qin Xiao

    (Division of Economics,School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore)

  • Randolph Gee Kwang Tan

    (Division of Economics,School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore)

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Evans (1991) demonstrates that the unit root tests recommended by Hamilton and Whiteman (1985) and Diba and Grossman (1988) will fail to detect periodically collapsing rational bubbles. Hall et al. (1999) however show that the power of this test procedure can be improved by incorporating a Markov-switching state variable. In this paper, we apply both procedures to selected data from Hong Kong and Seoul. Both point to the possible existence of a periodically-collapsing bubble in each price series investigated, with the second procedure more precise on timing the bubble. Our Markovswitching model is validated using a symmetry test and a Wald test.

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File URL: http://www3.ntu.edu.sg/hss2/egc/wp/2006/2006-02.pdf
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Paper provided by Nanyang Technological University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre in its series Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series with number 0602.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nan:wpaper:0602
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Web page: http://egc.hss.ntu.edu.sg/

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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  2. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 193-213, May.
  3. Robert Breunig & Serinah Najarian & Adrian Pagan, 2003. "Specification Testing of Markov Switching Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 703-725, December.
  4. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1988. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 2762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  6. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick & Paul Kaplan, 1986. "An Evaluation of Recent Evidence on Stock Market Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 1971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Giuseppe Cavaliere, 2003. "Asymptotics for unit root tests under Markov´┐Żregime-switching," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 193-216, 06.
  8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  9. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bhargava, Alok, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July.
  11. Takatoshi Ito & Tokuo Iwaisako, 1996. "Explaining Asset Bubbles in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 14(1), pages 143-193, July.
  12. Hamilton, James D., 1986. "State-space models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 50, pages 3039-3080 Elsevier.
  13. Chan, Hing Lin & Lee, Shu Kam & Woo, Kai Yin, 2001. "Detecting rational bubbles in the residential housing markets of Hong Kong," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 61-73, January.
  14. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  15. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1999. "Detecting Periodically Collapsing Bubbles: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 143-54, March-Apr.
  16. Kim, Kyung-Hwan & Suh, Seoung Hwan, 1993. "Speculation and Price Bubbles in the Korean and Japanese Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-87, January.
  17. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
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