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Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion



Research in psychology and behavioral finance is surveyed for evidence to what extent experts such as professional investment managers or endowment trustees may behave in such a way as to help perpetuate speculative bubbles in financial markets. This paper discusses scholarly psychological literature on the representativeness heuristic, overconfidence, attentional anomalies, self-esteem, conformity pressures, salience and justification for insights into weaknesses in expert opinion. The role of the prudent person standard and the news media in influencing experts is considered. The relevance of the literature on testing of the efficient markets theory is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1303, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1303

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Basu, Sanjoy, 1983. "The relationship between earnings' yield, market value and return for NYSE common stocks : Further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 129-156, June.
    2. Robert J. Shiller & John Pound, 1986. "Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Interest Among Institutional Investors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 794, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Peter M. deMarzo & Dimitri Vayanos & Jeffrey Zwiebel, 2000. "A Model of Persuasion - With Implications for Financial Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1635, Econometric Society.
    5. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    6. repec:hrv:faseco:30747159 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. "Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bjuggren, Per-Olof & Wiberg, Daniel, 2005. "Industry Specific Effects in Investment Performance and Valuation of Firms - Marginal q in a Stock Market Bubble," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 45, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    2. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    3. Herrera, Santiago & Perry, Guillermo, 2001. "Tropical bubbles : asset prices in Latin America, 1980-2001," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2724, The World Bank.
    4. Markus Glaser & Thomas Langer & Martin Weber, 2007. "On the Trend Recognition and Forecasting Ability of Professional Traders," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 176-193, December.
    5. Qin Xiao & Gee Kwang Randolph Tan, 2007. "Signal Extraction with Kalman Filter: A Study of the Hong Kong Property Price Bubbles," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(4), pages 865-888, April.

    More about this item


    Institutional investors; investment professionals; organizations; committees; stock market; speculative markets; behavioral finance; feedback; groupthink; representativeness; heuristic; conservatism; subjective probability; prudent person; standard; ERISA; news media; attention; efficient markets; conformity pressures; true uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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