IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/prt/dpaper/1_2006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is the Impact of ECB Monetary Policy on EMU Stock Market Returns asymmetric?

Author

Listed:
  • Oreste Napolitano

Abstract

This paper investigates whether monetary policy has asymmetric effects on stock returns of the EUM countries at aggregate levels and, for six industry portfolios in France, Italy, Germany, Belgium and Netherlands respectively. In this work, a different measures of monetary policy innovation is adopted. The empirical results, in line with results from previous studies, indicate that for the EUM stock markets there is statistically significant relationship between policy innovations and stock markets returns. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that positive monetary policy shock (e.g. contractionary policy) is an event that decrease future cash flow. Moreover, the finding from country size and industry portfolios indicate that monetary policy have larger asymmetric effect in industry portfolios of big countries (Italy, France and Germany) compared to the same industry portfolios of small countries (Netherlands and Belgium). However, the sign of the impact is for both groups the same. The policy implications of the analysis can be summarized as follows: if the ECB follows a contractionary monetary policy then the effect on the stock market returns will be lengthier and larger in bear markets. On the other hand, following the same policy, the effect of the ECB actions on the EMU stock markets returns will be smaller in bull markets. The results suggest that monetary policy is not neutral, at least in the short run and, moreover, that there is some role for anticipated ECB monetary policy to affect the stock market but that this role will also have asymmetric impacts on each single EMU country’s stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Oreste Napolitano, 2006. "Is the Impact of ECB Monetary Policy on EMU Stock Market Returns asymmetric?," Discussion Papers 1_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:prt:dpaper:1_2006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economia.uniparthenope.it/ise/sito/DP/DP_1_2006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    3. James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2002. "Why the Fed should ignore the stock market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Mar.), pages 35-42.
    4. Ammer, John & Mei, Jianping, 1996. "Measuring International Economic Linkages with Stock Market Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1743-1763, December.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    6. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
    7. Engel, Charles, 1994. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 151-165, February.
    8. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1997. "What does the Bundesbank target?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1053, June.
    11. Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Markov Regime Switching and Unit-Root Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 404-415, October.
    12. Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano, 2004. "Financial Condition Index and interest rate settings: a comparative analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 1, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    13. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 193-213, May.
    14. Vigfusson, Robert, 1997. "Switching between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 291-305, October.
    15. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2007. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 667-688, March.
    16. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    17. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    18. J. Benson Durham, 2001. "The effect of monetary policy on monthly and quarterly stock market returns: cross-country evidence and sensitivity analyses," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    20. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
    21. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Rudiger Dornbusch & Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "The Immediate Challenges for the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 6369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Gregory Bauer & Clara Vega, 2004. "The Monetary Origins of Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," Staff Working Papers 04-47, Bank of Canada.
    24. Wongswan, Jon, 2009. "The response of global equity indexes to U.S. monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 344-365, March.
    25. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:13:y:1998:i:26:p:15-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beatrice D. Simo - Kengne & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Monique Reid & Goodness C. Aye, 2012. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive mode," Working Papers 15-26, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    2. Nave, Juan M. & Ruiz, Javier, 2015. "Risk aversion and monetary policy in a global context," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 14-35.
    3. Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "Monetary policy and herd behavior: International evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 386-417.
    4. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2015. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(2), pages 176-196, August.
    5. Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Reid, Monique & Aye, Goodness C., 2013. "Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric across bull and bear markets in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 161-171.
    6. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos & David Sondermann, 2008. "European Stock Markets and the ECB's Monetary Policy Surprises," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 117-130, August.
    7. Unalmis, Deren & Unalmis, Ibrahim, 2015. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Surprises on Asset Markets in the United States," MPRA Paper 62585, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wongswan, Jon, 2009. "The response of global equity indexes to U.S. monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 344-365, March.
    2. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Equity prices and financial globalization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 49-57.
    3. Fatnassi, Ibrahim & Slim, Chaouachi & Ftiti, Zied & Ben Maatoug, Abderrazek, 2014. "Effects of monetary policy on the REIT returns: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-26.
    4. Tim D. Maurer & Thomas Nitschka, 2020. "Stock market evidence on the international transmission channels of US monetary policy surprises," Working Papers 2020-10, Swiss National Bank.
    5. Jing Wang & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2013. "The reaction of international stock markets to Federal Reserve policy," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(1), pages 1-30, March.
    6. Hausman, Joshua & Wongswan, Jon, 2011. "Global asset prices and FOMC announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 547-571, April.
    7. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'Reilly, 2009. "European monetary policy surprises: the aggregate and sectoral stock market response," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 156-171.
    8. Ernst Konrad, 2009. "The impact of monetary policy surprises on asset return volatility: the case of Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 23(2), pages 111-135, June.
    9. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "The impact of ECBs conventional and unconventional monetary policies on European banking indexes returns," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def059, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    10. Cheng Jiang, 2018. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-27, September.
    11. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2011. "The reaction of stock returns to unexpected increases in the federal funds rate target," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 121-138, March.
    12. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor & Felix Ward, 2019. "Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 109-150, March.
    13. Richhild Moessner, 2015. "International spillovers from US forward guidance to equity markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(42), pages 4549-4560, September.
    14. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    15. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2011. "The reaction of stock returns to unexpected increases in the federal funds rate target," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 121-138.
    16. Paulo Maio, 2014. "Another Look at the Stock Return Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 321-371.
    17. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Werner, Thomas, 2007. "Do central banks react to the stock market? The case of the Bundesbank," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 719-733, March.
    18. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath & Joseph Macri & Kambiz Raffiee, 2016. "The US Monetary Base and Major World Equity Markets: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 49-64, August.
    19. Dunbar, Kwamie & Amin, Abu S., 2012. "Credit risk dynamics in response to changes in the federal funds target: The implication for firm short-term debt," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 141-152.
    20. I.Fatnassi & S.Chawechi & Z.Ftiti & A.Ben Maatoug, 2014. "Effects of Monetary Policy on the REIT Returns," Working Papers 2014-63, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Markov-switching; Stock returns.;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prt:dpaper:1_2006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antonietta Milano) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Antonietta Milano to update the entry or send us the correct email address. General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/isnavit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.