The effect of monetary policy on monthly and quarterly stock market returns: cross-country evidence and sensitivity analyses
Several studies report an empirical link between changes in monetary policy and short- as well as long-run stock market performance in the United States. Such findings are germane both to the study of market anomalies and to monetary policy transmission mechanisms. Previous univariate time-series results on long-run data, which use the discount rate as the main policy indicator, seem robust to alternative specifications of stock price returns given data on 16 countries from 1956 through 2000. However, out-of-sample tests indicate that the relation has largely decreased over time. Also, panel regressions, which notably include cross-sectional variance and therefore are particularly relevant to market participants, suggest that the relation is less sturdy, and consideration of excess as opposed to raw equity price returns in time-series regressions indicates no relation. Finally, alternative measures of central bank policy suggest a weaker and a diminished correlation between monetary policy changes and long-run stock market performance.
|Date of creation:||2001|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551|
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/fedsorder.html|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997.
"Fundamental determinants of national equity market returns: A perspective on conditional asset pricing,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1625-1665, December.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1996. "Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns: A Perspective on Conditional Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 5860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barry Bosworth, 1975. "The Stock Market and the Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 257-300.
- Smirlock, Michael J & Yawitz, Jess B, 1985. " Asset Returns, Discount Rate Changes, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1141-1158, September.
- Jensen, Gerald R. & Mercer, Jeffrey M. & Johnson, Robert R., 1996. "Business conditions, monetary policy, and expected security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 213-237, February.
- J Benson Durham, "undated". "Econometrics of the Effects of Stock Market Development on Growth and Private Investment in Lower Income Countries," QEH Working Papers qehwps53, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
- Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-131.
- Robert J. Barro, 1989. "The Stock Market and Investment," NBER Working Papers 2925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
- Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I just ran four million regressions," Economics Working Papers 201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian P. Sack, 2001. "Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 8350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. " Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Uhlig, Harald F., 1990. "Reasonable extreme-bounds analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 159-170.
- Clive W. J. Granger & Harald F. Uhlig, 1988. "Reasonable extreme bounds analysis," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 2, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "EBA: RATS procedure to perform Extreme Bounds Analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00059, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
- Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
- G. William Schwert, 1988. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Durham, J. Benson, 2001. "Sensitivity analyses of anomalies in developed stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1503-1541, August.
- Asprem, Mads, 1989. "Stock prices, asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten European countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 589-612, September.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
- Joe Lange & Brian P. Sack & William C. Whitesell, 2001. "Anticipations of monetary policy in financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Conover, C. Mitchell & Jensen, Gerald R. & Johnson, Robert R., 1999. "Monetary environments and international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1357-1381, September.
- Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, January. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)