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The effect of monetary policy on monthly and quarterly stock market returns: cross-country evidence and sensitivity analyses

  • J. Benson Durham

Several studies report an empirical link between changes in monetary policy and short- as well as long-run stock market performance in the United States. Such findings are germane both to the study of market anomalies and to monetary policy transmission mechanisms. Previous univariate time-series results on long-run data, which use the discount rate as the main policy indicator, seem robust to alternative specifications of stock price returns given data on 16 countries from 1956 through 2000. However, out-of-sample tests indicate that the relation has largely decreased over time. Also, panel regressions, which notably include cross-sectional variance and therefore are particularly relevant to market participants, suggest that the relation is less sturdy, and consideration of excess as opposed to raw equity price returns in time-series regressions indicates no relation. Finally, alternative measures of central bank policy suggest a weaker and a diminished correlation between monetary policy changes and long-run stock market performance.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2001-42.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2001-42
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  1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
  2. Conover, C. Mitchell & Jensen, Gerald R. & Johnson, Robert R., 1999. "Monetary environments and international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1357-1381, September.
  3. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1996. "Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns: A Perspective on Conditional Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 5860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-31.
  8. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  9. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction Of Monetary Policy To The Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669, May.
  10. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Granger, Clive W. J. & Uhlig, Harald F., 1990. "Reasonable extreme-bounds analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 159-170.
  12. Asprem, Mads, 1989. "Stock prices, asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten European countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 589-612, September.
  13. Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, June.
  14. Barry Bosworth, 1975. "The Stock Market and the Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 527-300.
  15. Joe Lange & Brian Sack & William Whitesell, 2001. "Anticipations of monetary policy in financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Smirlock, Michael J & Yawitz, Jess B, 1985. " Asset Returns, Discount Rate Changes, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1141-58, September.
  17. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. " Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-98, July.
  18. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
  19. Durham, J. Benson, 2001. "Sensitivity analyses of anomalies in developed stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1503-1541, August.
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