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Common long-range dependence in a panel of hourly Nord Pool electricity prices and loads

Author

Listed:
  • Yunus Emre Ergemen

    () (Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Niels Haldrup

    () (Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Carlos Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero

    () (Aarhus University and CREATES)

Abstract

Equilibrium electricity spot prices and loads are often determined simultaneously in a day-ahead auction market for each hour of the subsequent day. Hence daily observations of hourly prices take the form of a periodic panel rather than a time series of hourly observations. We consider novel panel data approaches to analyse the time series and the cross-sectional dependence of hourly Nord Pool electricity spot prices and loads for the period 2000-2013. Hourly electricity prices and loads data are characterized by strong serial long-range dependence in the time series dimension in addition to strong seasonal periodicity, and along the cross-sectional dimension, i.e. the hours of the day, there is a strong dependence which necessarily has to be accounted for in order to avoid spurious inference when focusing on the time series dependence alone. The long-range dependence is modelled in terms of a fractionally integrated panel data model and it is shown that both prices and loads consist of common factors with long memory and with loadings that vary considerably during the day. Due to the competitiveness of the Nordic power market the aggregate supply curve approximates well the marginal costs of the underlying production technology and because the demand is more volatile than the supply, equilibrium prices and loads are argued to identify the periodic power supply curve. The estimated supply elasticities are estimated from fractionally co-integrated relations and range between 0.5 and 1.17 with the largest elasticities being estimated during morning and evening peak hours.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunus Emre Ergemen & Niels Haldrup & Carlos Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero, 2015. "Common long-range dependence in a panel of hourly Nord Pool electricity prices and loads," CREATES Research Papers 2015-58, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2015-58
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yunus Emre Ergemen & Carlos Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero, 2016. "A Dynamic Multi-Level Factor Model with Long-Range Dependence," CREATES Research Papers 2016-23, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ergemen, Yunus Emre, 2017. "Estimation of a Dynamic Multilevel Factor Model with possible long-range dependence," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24614, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity prices and loads; panel data models; fractional integration; long memory;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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