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Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration

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  • Angelica Gianfreda
  • Francesco Ravazzolo
  • Luca Rossini

Abstract

This paper compares alternative univariate versus multivariate models, frequentist versus Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive specifications, for hourly day-ahead electricity prices, both with and without renewable energy sources. The accuracy of point and density forecasts are inspected in four main European markets (Germany, Denmark, Italy and Spain) characterized by different levels of renewable energy power generation. Our results show that the Bayesian VAR specifications with exogenous variables dominate other multivariate and univariate specifications, in terms of both point and density forecasting.

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  • Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2018. "Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration," Papers 1801.01093, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1801.01093
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    15. Foroni, Claudia & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2019. "Forecasting daily electricity prices with monthly macroeconomic variables," Working Paper Series 2250, European Central Bank.
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    18. Avesani, Diego & Zanfei, Ariele & Di Marco, Nicola & Galletti, Andrea & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Righetti, Maurizio & Majone, Bruno, 2022. "Short-term hydropower optimization driven by innovative time-adapting econometric model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    19. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
    20. Philip Beran & Arne Vogler, 2021. "Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting: A Comparison of fundamental, econometric and hybrid Models," EWL Working Papers 2102, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Oct 2021.
    21. Nikola Krečar & Andrej F. Gubina, 2020. "Risk mitigation in the electricity market driven by new renewable energy sources," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), January.
    22. Anna Gloria Billé & Angelica Gianfreda & Filippo Del Grosso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Forecasting Electricity Prices with Expert, Linear and Non-Linear Models," Working Paper series 21-20, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

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