Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?
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- Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2020. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 466-479.
References listed on IDEAS
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Citations
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Cited by:
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- Arne Vogler & Florian Ziel, "undated". "On The Evaluation Of Binary Event Probability Predictions In Electricity Price Forecasting," EWL Working Papers 1911, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics.
- Oliver Grothe & Fabian Kachele & Fabian Kruger, 2022. "From point forecasts to multivariate probabilistic forecasts: The Schaake shuffle for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Papers 2204.10154, arXiv.org.
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- Daniel Manfre Jaimes & Manuel Zamudio López & Hamidreza Zareipour & Mike Quashie, 2023. "A Hybrid Model for Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting considering Price Spikes," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, July.
- Jozef Barunik & Lubos Hanus, 2023. "Learning Probability Distributions of Day-Ahead Electricity Prices," Papers 2310.02867, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
- Bartosz Uniejewski, 2023. "Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging: A new approach to probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices," Papers 2302.00411, arXiv.org.
- Mira Watermeyer & Thomas Mobius & Oliver Grothe & Felix Musgens, 2023. "A hybrid model for day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Combining fundamental and stochastic modelling," Papers 2304.09336, arXiv.org.
- Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2021.
"Regularized quantile regression averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
- Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2019. "Regularized Quantile Regression Averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/19/04, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Weronika Nitka & Rafa{l} Weron, 2023. "Combining predictive distributions of electricity prices: Does minimizing the CRPS lead to optimal decisions in day-ahead bidding?," Papers 2308.15443, arXiv.org.
- Lee, Juyong & Cho, Youngsang, 2022. "National-scale electricity peak load forecasting: Traditional, machine learning, or hybrid model?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
- Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Narajewski, Michał & Weron, Rafał & Ziel, Florian, 2023.
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- Grzegorz Marcjasz & Micha{l} Narajewski & Rafa{l} Weron & Florian Ziel, 2022. "Distributional neural networks for electricity price forecasting," Papers 2207.02832, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
- Tomasz Serafin & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2019.
"Averaging Predictive Distributions Across Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting,"
Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-12, July.
- Tomasz Serafin & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2019. "Averaging predictive distributions across calibration windows for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/19/08, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, revised 06 Jul 2019.
- Grothe, Oliver & Kächele, Fabian & Krüger, Fabian, 2023. "From point forecasts to multivariate probabilistic forecasts: The Schaake shuffle for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
- Serafin, Tomasz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2022.
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Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
- Tomasz Serafin & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron, 2020. "Trading on short-term path forecasts of intraday electricity prices," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/20/17, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
- Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
- Juyong Lee & Youngsang Cho, 2021. "National-scale electricity peak load forecasting: Traditional, machine learning, or hybrid model?," Papers 2107.06174, arXiv.org.
- Stephen Haben & Julien Caudron & Jake Verma, 2021. "Probabilistic Day-Ahead Wholesale Price Forecast: A Case Study in Great Britain," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-37, August.
- Weronika Nitka & Rafał Weron, 2023. "Combining predictive distributions of electricity prices. Does minimizing the CRPS lead to optimal decisions in day-ahead bidding?," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 33(3), pages 105-118.
- Elmore, Clay T. & Dowling, Alexander W., 2021. "Learning spatiotemporal dynamics in wholesale energy markets with dynamic mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
- Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories," Papers 2005.01365, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
- Lehna, Malte & Scheller, Fabian & Herwartz, Helmut, 2022. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A comparison of time series and neural network models taking external regressors into account," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
- Arne Vogler & Florian Ziel, 2021. "Event-Based Evaluation of Electricity Price Ensemble Forecasts," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
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"Averaging Predictive Distributions Across Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting,"
Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-12, July.
- Tomasz Serafin & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2019. "Averaging predictive distributions across calibration windows for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/19/08, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, revised 06 Jul 2019.
- Carlo Fezzi & Luca Mosetti, 2018. "Size matters: Estimation sample length and electricity price forecasting accuracy," DEM Working Papers 2018/10, Department of Economics and Management.
- Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories," Papers 2005.01365, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
More about this item
Keywords
Electricity spot price; Probabilistic forecast; Combining forecasts; Long-term seasonal component; NARX neural network; Quantile regression;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-BIG-2018-09-03 (Big Data)
- NEP-CMP-2018-09-03 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2018-09-03 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ETS-2018-09-03 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2018-09-03 (Forecasting)
Statistics
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