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Interval forecasting of spot electricity prices

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  • Adam Misiorek
  • Rafal Weron

Abstract

In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the electricity spot market. However, instead of evaluating point predictions we concentrate on interval forecasts. The latter are specifically important for risk management purposes where one is more interested in predicting intervals for future price movements than simply point estimates. We find evidence that non-linear regime-switching models outperform their linear counterparts and that an additional GARCH component significantly improves interval forecasts of linear time series models.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Misiorek & Rafal Weron, 2006. "Interval forecasting of spot electricity prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/06/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc0605
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    File URL: http://www.im.pwr.wroc.pl/~hugo/RePEc/wuu/wpaper/HSC_06_05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bessec Marie & Bouabdallah Othman, 2005. "What Causes The Forecasting Failure of Markov-Switching Models? A Monte Carlo Study," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-24, June.
    2. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1992. "Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 91-113.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6064 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Gordon W. Crawford & Michael C. Fratantoni, 2003. "Assessing the Forecasting Performance of Regime‐Switching, ARIMA and GARCH Models of House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 223-243, June.
    6. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2000. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 12-22, February.
    7. Rafal Weron & Adam Misiorek, 2006. "Short-term electricity price forecasting with time series models: A review and evaluation," HSC Research Reports HSC/06/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity price forecasting; Interval forecasting; Autoregression (AR) model; Threshold Autoregression (TAR) model; Electricity load;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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