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Estimation risk in financial risk management

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Christoffersen
  • Sílvia Gonçalves

Abstract

ABSTRACT Value-at-risk (VAR) is increasingly used in portfolio risk measurement, risk capital allocation and performance attribution. Financial risk managers are therefore rightfully concerned with the precision of typical VAR techniques.;The purpose of this paper is to assess the precision of common dynamic models and to quantify the magnitude of the estimation error by constructing confidence intervals around the point VAR and expected shortfall (ES) forecasts.;A key challenge in constructing proper confidence intervals arises from the conditional variance dynamics that are typically found in speculative returns. Our paper suggests a resampling technique which takes into account parameter estimation error in dynamic models of portfolio variance.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Christoffersen & Sílvia Gonçalves, . "Estimation risk in financial risk management," Journal of Risk, Journal of Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:rsk:journ4:2161126
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    2. Alexandros Gabrielsen & Axel Kirchner & Zhuoshi Liu & Paolo Zagaglia, 2015. "Forecasting Value-At-Risk With Time-Varying Variance, Skewness And Kurtosis In An Exponential Weighted Moving Average Framework," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-29.
    3. Hartz, Christoph & Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc, 2006. "Accurate value-at-risk forecasting based on the normal-GARCH model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2295-2312, December.
    4. Silvia Stanescu & Radu Tunaru, 2013. "Quantifying the uncertainty in VaR and expected shortfall estimates," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 15, pages 357-372, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Genest, Benoit & Cao, Zhili, 2014. "Value-at-Risk in turbulence time," MPRA Paper 62906, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hartz, Christoph & Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S., 2006. "Accurate Value-at-Risk forecast with the (good old) normal-GARCH model," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/23, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Wasel Shadat, 2011. "On the Nonparametric Tests of Univariate GARCH Regression Models," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1115, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    8. Bauwens Luc & Storti Giuseppe, 2009. "A Component GARCH Model with Time Varying Weights," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-33, May.
    9. Loriano Mancini & Fabio Trojani, 2011. "Robust Value at Risk Prediction," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 281-313, Spring.
    10. Chen, Yi-Hsuan & Tu, Anthony H., 2013. "Estimating hedged portfolio value-at-risk using the conditional copula: An illustration of model risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 514-528.
    11. Dannenberg, Henry, 2011. "The Importance of Estimation Uncertainty in a Multi-Rating Class Loan Portfolio," IWH Discussion Papers 11/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    12. Nieto, María Rosa & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws087326, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    13. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Lima, Luiz Renato & Linton, Oliver & Smith, Daniel R., 2011. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models via Quantile Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 150-160.
    14. Hasan Mahmoud & Vian Ahmed & Salwa Beheiry, 2021. "Construction Cash Flow Risk Index," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-17, June.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Switzerland: Technical Note-Systemic Risk and Contagion Analysis," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/268, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Nieto, María Rosa & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2010. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for VaR and ES in the context of GARCH models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws102814, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    17. Imola Drigă, 2012. "Financial Risks Analysis For A Commercial Bank In The Romanian Banking System," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(14), pages 1-14.
    18. Adrián F. Rossignolo & Víctor A. Álvarez, 2015. "Has the Basel Committee Got it Right? Evidence from Commodity Positions in Turmoil," Remef - The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas. Remef, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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