Forecasting volatility with outliers in GARCH models
In this paper, we detect and correct abnormal returns in 17 French stocks returns and the French index CAC40 from additive-outlier detection method in GARCH models developed by Franses and Ghijsels (1999) and extended to innovative outliers by Charles and Darné (2005). We study the effects of outlying observations on several popular econometric tests. Moreover, we show that the parameters of the equation governing the volatility dynamics are biased when we do not take into account additive and innovative outliers. Finally, we show that the volatility forecast is better when the data are cleaned of outliers for several step-ahead forecasts (short, medium- and long-term) even if we consider a GARCH- t process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 7 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michel Beine & Sébastien Laurent, 2003.
"Central Bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/10435, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sebastien, 2003. "Central bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 641-660, December.
- BEINE, Michel & LAURENT, Sébastien, . "Central bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1706, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Jurgen A. Doornik & Marius Ooms, 2005.
"Outlier Detection in GARCH Models,"
2005-W24, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Jurgen Doornik & Marius Ooms, 2005. "Outlier Detection in GARCH Models," Economics Series Working Papers 2005-W24, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Jurgen A. Doornik & Marius Ooms, 2005. "Outlier Detection in GARCH Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-092/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989.
"The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
- Catalin Starica, 2004. "Is GARCH(1,1) as good a model as the Nobel prize accolades would imply?," Econometrics 0411015, EconWPA.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001.
"Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
01-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," NBER Working Papers 8160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Labys, Paul, 2002. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Working Papers 02-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Chen, Andrew H. & Siems, Thomas F., 2004. "The effects of terrorism on global capital markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 349-366, June.
- Verhoeven, Peter & McAleer, Michael, 2004.
"Fat tails and asymmetry in financial volatility models,"
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM),
Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 351-361.
- Peter Verhoeven & Michael McAleer, 2003. "Fat Tails and Asymmetry in Financial Volatility Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-211, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2005. "Outliers and GARCH models in financial data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 347-352, March.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Ghijsels, Hendrik, 1999. "Additive outliers, GARCH and forecasting volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, February.
- M. Angeles Carnero & Daniel Peña & Esther Ruiz, 2007. "Effects of outliers on the identification and estimation of GARCH models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 471-497, 07.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993.
" Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Philippe Jorion, 1988. "On Jump Processes in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 427-445.
- Vlaar, Peter J G & Palm, Franz C, 1993. "The Message in Weekly Exchange Rates in the European Monetary System: Mean Reversion, Conditional Heteroscedasticity, and Jumps," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 351-60, July.
- Shinichi Sakata & Halbert White, 1998. "High Breakdown Point Conditional Dispersion Estimation with Application to S&P 500 Daily Returns Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 529-568, May.
- Park, Beum-Jo, 2002. "An Outlier Robust GARCH Model and Forecasting Volatility of Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 381-93, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:27:y:2008:i:7:p:551-565. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.