Wavelet-based detection of outliers in financial time series
Outliers in financial data can lead to model parameter estimation biases, invalid inferences and poor volatility forecasts. Therefore, their detection and correction should be taken seriously when modeling financial data. The present paper focuses on these issues and proposes a general detection and correction method based on wavelets that can be applied to a large class of volatility models. The effectiveness of the new proposal is tested by an intensive Monte Carlo study for six well-known volatility models and compared to alternative proposals in the literature, before it is applied to three daily stock market indices. The Monte Carlo experiments show that the new method is both very effective in detecting isolated outliers and outlier patches and much more reliable than other alternatives, since it detects a significantly smaller number of false outliers. Correcting the data of outliers reduces the skewness and the excess kurtosis of the return series distributions and allows for more accurate return prediction intervals compared to those obtained when the existence of outliers is ignored.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Teräsvirta, Timo, 1996. "Two Stylized Facts and the Garch (1,1) Model," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 96, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
- van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1999.
"Testing for ARCH in the Presence of Additive Outliers,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 539-562, Sept.-Oct.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Lucas, A., 1996. "Testing for ARCH in the Presence of Additive Outliers," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9659-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- M. Angeles Carnero & Daniel Peña & Esther Ruiz, 2007. "Effects of outliers on the identification and estimation of GARCH models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 471-497, July.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to replicate Baillie and Bollerslev GARCH models with day-of-week effects," Statistical Software Components RTZ00172, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Xibin Zhang, 2004. "Assessment of Local Influence in GARCH Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 301-313, March.
- Jurgen A. Doornik & Marius Ooms, 2005. "Outlier Detection in GARCH Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-092/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Jurgen A. Doornik & Marius Ooms, 2005. "Outlier Detection in GARCH Models," Economics Papers 2005-W24, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Ghijsels, Hendrik, 1999. "Additive outliers, GARCH and forecasting volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, February.
- Ledolter, Johannes, 1989. "The effect of additive outliers on the forecasts from ARIMA models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 231-240.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Grossi, Luigi & Laurini, Fabrizio, 2009. "A robust forward weighted Lagrange multiplier test for conditional heteroscedasticity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2251-2263, April.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Seth A. Greenblatt, 1994. "Wavelets in Econometrics: An Application to Outlier Testing," Econometrics 9410001, EconWPA.
- Gallegati Marco & Gallegati Mauro, 2007. "Wavelet Variance Analysis of Output in G-7 Countries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, September.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Salmon, Mark, 1983. "Testing normality in econometric models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 123-127.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M & Salmon, Mark, 1982. "Testing Normality in Econometric Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 216, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
- Teräsvirta, Timo, 2006. "An introduction to univariate GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 646, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Shinichi Sakata & Halbert White, 1998. "High Breakdown Point Conditional Dispersion Estimation with Application to S&P 500 Daily Returns Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 529-568, May.
- Amélie Charles, 2008. "Forecasting volatility with outliers in GARCH models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 551-565.
- Galeano, Pedro & Pena, Daniel & Tsay, Ruey S., 2006. "Outlier Detection in Multivariate Time Series by Projection Pursuit," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 654-669, June.
- Xibin Zhang & Maxwell L. King, 2005. "Influence Diagnostics in Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 118-129, January.
- Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:54:y:2010:i:11:p:2580-2593. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.