Outlier Detection in GARCH Models
We present a new procedure for detecting multiple additive outliers in GARCH(1,1) models at unknown dates. The outlier candidates are the observations with the largest standardized residual. First, a likelihood-ratio based test determines the presence and timing of an outlier. Next, a second test determines the type of additive outlier (volatility or level). The tests are shown to be similar with respect to the GARCH parameters. Their null distribution can be easily approximated from an extreme value distribution, so that computation of p-values does not require simulation. The procedure outperforms alternative methods, especially when it comes to determining the date of the outlier. We apply the method to returns of the Dow Jones index, using monthly, weekly, and daily data. The procedure is extended and applied to GARCH models with Student-t distributed errors.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
- Shinichi Sakata & Halbert White, 1998. "High Breakdown Point Conditional Dispersion Estimation with Application to S&P 500 Daily Returns Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 529-568, May.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038 Elsevier.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Neil Shephard, 2005.
2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Jurgen A. Doornik & Marius Ooms, 2003.
"Multimodality in the GARCH Regression Model,"
2003-W20, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maxine Collett)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.