Short-term electricity price forecasting with time series models: A review and evaluation
We investigate the forecasting power of different time series models for electricity spot prices. The models include different specifications of linear autoregressive time series with heteroscedastic noise and/or additional fundamental variables and non-linear regime-switching TAR-type models. The models are tested on a time series of hourly system prices and loads from the California power market. Data from the period July 5, 1999 - April 2, 2000 are used for calibration and from the period April 3 - December 3, 2000 for out-of-sample testing.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Publication status:||Published in "Complex Electricity Markets", ed. W. Mielczarski, Chapter 10, 231-254 (2006).|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Wybrzeze Wyspianskiego 27, 50-370 Wroclaw|
Web page: http://prac.im.pwr.wroc.pl/~hugo
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Max Stevenson, 2001. "Filtering and Forecasting Spot Electricity Prices in the Increasingly Deregulated Australian Electricity Market," Research Paper Series 63, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Kossmeier, Stephan & Obersteiner, Michael, 2004. "Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 87-106, January.
- Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
- Misiorek Adam & Trueck Stefan & Weron Rafal, 2006. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-36, September.
- Vehvilainen, Iivo & Pyykkonen, Tuomas, 2005. "Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price--the case of the Nordic market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 351-367, March.
- Ventosa, Mariano & Baillo, Alvaro & Ramos, Andres & Rivier, Michel, 2005. "Electricity market modeling trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 897-913, May.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000.
"Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, January.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
- Adam Misiorek & Rafal Weron, 2006. "Interval forecasting of spot electricity prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/06/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Terry Robinson, 2000. "Electricity pool prices: a case study in nonlinear time-series modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 527-532.
- Conejo, Antonio J. & Contreras, Javier & Espinola, Rosa & Plazas, Miguel A., 2005. "Forecasting electricity prices for a day-ahead pool-based electric energy market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 435-462.
- Rafal Weron & Adam Misiorek, 2005. "Forecasting Spot Electricity Prices With Time Series Models," Econometrics 0504001, EconWPA.
- Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
- B. Ricky Rambharat & Anthony E. Brockwell & Duane J. Seppi, 2005. "A threshold autoregressive model for wholesale electricity prices," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(2), pages 287-299.
- Juri Hinz, 2003. "Modelling day-ahead electricity prices," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 149-161.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)