Fundamental and Behavioural Drivers of Electricity Price Volatility
The stochastic properties of volatility in spot electricity prices are only partially understood and present substantial modelling challenges. This paper develops and applies three complementary modelling approaches in order to uncover its fundamental and behavioural drivers over time and across intra-day trading periods. First, intra-day prices are related to systematic components, including economic fundamentals, strategic and market design effects. Then, residual volatility is attributed to: i) regular, non-linear agent reactions to market fundamentals (covariates of heteroscedasticity), ii) the adaptation of price formation due to substantial agent learning (time-varying effects), and iii) the transient extreme pricing in periods of scarcity (regime-switching dynamics). We find that, i) GARCH effects diminish, when each of the above sources of volatility is accounted for, and ii) allowing for the time-varying responses of prices to fundamentals can yield more precise volatility estimates than an explicit GARCH specification.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 14 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.degruyter.com|
|Order Information:||Web: https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/snde|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2005.
"Extreme value theory and extremely large electricity price changes,"
International Review of Economics & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-55.
- Byström, Hans, 2001. "Extreme Value Theory and Extremely Large Electricity Price Changes," Working Papers 2001:19, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Frank A. Wolak, 2000. "Market Design and Price Behavior in Restructured Electricity Markets: An International Comparison," NBER Chapters,in: Deregulation and Interdependence in the Asia-Pacific Region, NBER-EASE Volume 8, pages 79-137 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Max Stevenson, 2001. "Filtering and Forecasting Spot Electricity Prices in the Increasingly Deregulated Australian Electricity Market," Research Paper Series 63, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 764-785.
- Green, Richard J & Joanne Evans, 2003. "Why did British electricity prices fall after 1998?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 92, Royal Economic Society.
- Joanne Evans & Richard Green, 2003. "Why did British electricity prices fall after 1998?," Working Papers 0307, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Evans, J. & Green, R., 2003. "Why did British Electricity Prices Fall after 1998?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0326, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Joanne Evans and Richard Green, 2005. "Why Did British Electricity Prices Fall after 1998?," Discussion Papers 05-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- M. Angeles Carnero & Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2003. "Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-071/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Marius Ooms & M. Angeles Carnero & Siem Jan Koopman, 2004. "Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA models for daily electricity spot prices," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 158, Econometric Society.
- Richard Green, 2004. "Did English Generators Play Cournot? Capacity withholding in the Electricity Pool," Working Papers 0410, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Green, R., 2004. "‘Did English Generators Play Cournot? Capacity Withholding in the Electricity Pool’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0425, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
- Barr Rosenberg, 1973. "Random Coefficients Models: The Analysis of a Cross Section of Time Series by Stochastically Convergent Parameter Regression," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 2, number 4, pages 399-428 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
- Misiorek Adam & Trueck Stefan & Weron Rafal, 2006. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-36, September.
- Roques, F. & Newbery, D.M. & Nuttall, W.J., 2004. "Generation Adequacy and Investment Incentives in Britain: from the Pool to NETA," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0459, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Green, Richard J & Newbery, David M, 1992. "Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 929-953, October.
- Green, Richard & Newbery, David M G, 1991. "Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 557, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bierbrauer, Michael & Menn, Christian & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Truck, Stefan, 2007. "Spot and derivative pricing in the EEX power market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3462-3485, November.
- Rafal Weron & Adam Misiorek, 2005. "Forecasting Spot Electricity Prices With Time Series Models," Econometrics 0504001, EconWPA.
- Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
- Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-1271, November.
- J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
- Terry Robinson & Andrzej Baniak, 2002. "The volatility of prices in the English and Welsh electricity pool," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1487-1495.
- Balke, Nathan S. & Fomby, Thomas B., 1991. "Shifting trends, segmented trends, and infrequent permanent shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 61-85, August.
- Kosater, Peter, 2006. "On the impact of weather on German hourly power prices," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 1/06, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 1989. "The Time-Varying-Parameter Model for Modeling Changing Conditional Variance: The Case of the Lucas Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(4), pages 433-440, October.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Ashley W. Wang, 2004. "Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1877-1900, 08.
- Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September.
- Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald, 2003. "Regime jumps in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 425-434, September.
- Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J., 2001. "Regime Jumps in Electricity Prices," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2001-48-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Bower, John & Bunn, Derek, 2001. "Experimental analysis of the efficiency of uniform-price versus discriminatory auctions in the England and Wales electricity market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 561-592, March.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Erlandsson, Ulf G., 2005. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 314-320, July.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Ulf G. Erlandsson, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 1348, CESifo Group Munich.
- Yin-wong Cheung & Ulf G. Erlandsson, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," Working Papers 052005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
- Sunder, Shyam, 1980. " Stationarity of Market Risk: Random Coefficients Tests for Individual Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 883-896, September.
- Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
- M. T. Barlow, 2002. "A Diffusion Model For Electricity Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 287-298.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Ghijsels, Hendrik, 1999. "Additive outliers, GARCH and forecasting volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, February.
- Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)