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When Supply Meets Demand: The Case of Hourly Spot Electricity Prices

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  • Alexander Boogert

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

  • Dominique Dupont

Abstract

We use a supply-demand framework to model the hourly day-ahead spot price of electricity based on publicly available information. With the model we can forecast the level and the probability of a spike in the spot price de¯ned as the spot price being above a certain threshold. Several European countries have recently started publishing day-ahead forecasts of the available supply. In this paper we show potential uses of such indicators and test their forecasting power in an hourly spot price model. We conclude that a forecast of the available supply can be part of a useful indicator and discuss ways to further improve the forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Boogert & Dominique Dupont, 2007. "When Supply Meets Demand: The Case of Hourly Spot Electricity Prices," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0707, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0707
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    File URL: http://www.bbk.ac.uk/ems/research/wp/PDF/BWPEF0707.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-335.
    2. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald, 2003. "Regime jumps in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 425-434, September.
    3. Boogert, Alexander & Dupont, Dominique, 2005. "The nature of supply side effects on electricity prices: The impact of water temperature," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 121-125, July.
    4. Markus Burger & Bernhard Klar & Alfred Muller & Gero Schindlmayr, 2004. "A spot market model for pricing derivatives in electricity markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 109-122.
    5. Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
    6. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, June.
    7. Misiorek Adam & Trueck Stefan & Weron Rafal, 2006. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-36, September.
    8. Boogert, Alexander & Dupont, Dominique, 2005. "On the effectiveness of the anti-gaming policy between the day-ahead and real-time electricity markets in The Netherlands," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 752-770, September.
    9. Kanamura, Takashi & Ohashi, Kazuhiko, 2007. "A structural model for electricity prices with spikes: Measurement of spike risk and optimal policies for hydropower plant operation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1010-1032, September.
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