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Comparing the forecasting performances of linear models for electricity prices with high RES penetration

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  • Gianfreda, Angelica
  • Ravazzolo, Francesco
  • Rossini, Luca

Abstract

We compare alternative univariate versus multivariate models and frequentist versus Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive specifications for hourly day-ahead electricity prices, both with and without renewable energy sources. The accuracy of point and density forecasts is inspected in four main European markets (Germany, Denmark, Italy, and Spain) characterized by different levels of renewable energy power generation. Our results show that the Bayesian vector autoregressive specifications with exogenous variables dominate other multivariate and univariate specifications in terms of both point forecasting and density forecasting.

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  • Gianfreda, Angelica & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2020. "Comparing the forecasting performances of linear models for electricity prices with high RES penetration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 974-986.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:36:y:2020:i:3:p:974-986
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.11.002
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    9. Russo, Marianna & Kraft, Emil & Bertsch, Valentin & Keles, Dogan, 2021. "Short-term risk management for electricity retailers under rising shares of decentralized solar generation," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 57, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).

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