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Forecasting of daily electricity prices with factor models: utilizing intra-day and inter-zone relationships

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  • Katarzyna Maciejowska
  • Rafał Weron

Abstract

This paper investigates whether using hourly and/or zonal prices can improve the accuracy of short- and medium-term forecasts of average daily electricity prices. We consider a 6 years period (2008–2013) of hourly day-ahead prices from 19 zones of the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) interconnection and the PJM Dominion Hub in Virginia, U.S. The predictive performance of four multivariate models calibrated to hourly and/or zonal day-ahead prices is evaluated and compared with that of a univariate model, which uses only average daily data for the Dominion Hub. The multivariate competitors include a restricted vector autoregressive model and three factor models with the common and idiosyncratic components estimated using principal components in a semiparametric setup. The results indicate that there are statistically significant forecast improvements from incorporating the additional information, essentially for all considered forecast horizons ranging from 1 day to 2 months, but only when the correlation structure of prices across locations and/or hours is modeled using factor models. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

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  • Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafał Weron, 2015. "Forecasting of daily electricity prices with factor models: utilizing intra-day and inter-zone relationships," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 805-819, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:30:y:2015:i:3:p:805-819
    DOI: 10.1007/s00180-014-0531-0
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    2. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    3. Caston Sigauke & Murendeni Maurel Nemukula & Daniel Maposa, 2018. "Probabilistic Hourly Load Forecasting Using Additive Quantile Regression Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Gianfreda, Angelica & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2020. "Comparing the forecasting performances of linear models for electricity prices with high RES penetration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 974-986.
    5. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Selection of Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Tomasz Serafin, 2020. "PCA Forecast Averaging—Predicting Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    7. De Siano, Rita & Sapio, Alessandro, 2022. "Spatial merit order effects of renewables in the Italian power exchange," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    9. Philip Beran & Arne Vogler, 2021. "Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting: A Comparison of fundamental, econometric and hybrid Models," EWL Working Papers 2102, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Oct 2021.
    10. Alonso Fernández, Andrés Modesto & Bastos, Guadalupe & García-Martos, Carolina, 2017. "Electricity prices forecasting by averaging dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24028, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    11. Andrés M. Alonso & Guadalupe Bastos & Carolina García-Martos, 2016. "Electricity Price Forecasting by Averaging Dynamic Factor Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-21, July.
    12. Ostap Okhrin & Stefan Trück, 2015. "Editorial to the special issue on Applicable semiparametrics of computational statistics," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 641-646, September.
    13. Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    14. Kadir Özen & Dilem Yıldırım, 2021. "Application of Bagging in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting and Factor Augmentation," ERC Working Papers 2101, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2021.
    15. Duván Humberto Cataño & Carlos Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero & Daniel Peña, 2019. "Wavelet Estimation for Dynamic Factor Models with Time-Varying Loadings," CREATES Research Papers 2019-23, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    16. Fabrizio Leisen & Luca Rossini & Cristiano Villa, 2020. "Loss-based approach to two-piece location-scale distributions with applications to dependent data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(2), pages 309-333, June.
    17. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wholesale electricity price; Forecasting; Vector autoregression; Factor model; Principal components; PJM market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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