Forecasting Nonlinear Aggregates and Aggregates with Time-varying Weights
Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a framework for nonlinear contemporaneous aggregation with possibly stochastic or time-varying weights is developed and different predictors for an aggregate are compared theoretically as well as with simulations. Two examples based on European unemployment and inflation series are used to illustrate the virtue of the theoretical setup and the forecasting results.
Volume (Year): 231 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Licher Straße 74, 35394 Gießen|
Phone: +49 (0)641 99 22 001
Fax: +49 (0)641 99 22 009
Web page: http://wiwi.uni-giessen.de/home/oekonometrie/Jahrbuecher/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Helmut Luetkepohl, 2009.
"Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2009/17, European University Institute.
- Helmut Lütkepohl, 2010. "Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-26.
- Heather Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2007.
"Constructing Historical Euro Area Data,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006
99, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Hubrich, Kirstin, 2003.
"Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?,"
Working Paper Series
0247, European Central Bank.
- Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
- Kirstin Hubrich, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 230, Society for Computational Economics.
- Beyer, A. & Doornik, J.A. & Hendry, D.F., 2000.
"Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data,"
Economics Working Papers
eco2000/10, European University Institute.
- Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
- David F. Hendry & Kirstin Hubrich, 2011.
"Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227, April.
- Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2011. "Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227.
- Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2010. "Combining disaggregate forecasts or combining disaggregate information to forecast an aggregate," Working Paper Series 1155, European Central Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:231:y:2011:i:1:p:107-133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Winker)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.