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Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation

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  • EDWARD S. KNOTEK
  • SAEED ZAMAN

Abstract

Forecasting future inflation and nowcasting contemporaneous inflation are difficult. We propose a new and parsimonious model for nowcasting headline and core inflation in the U.S. consumer price index and price index for personal consumption expenditures that relies on relatively few variables. The model's nowcasting accuracy improves as information accumulates over a month or quarter, outperforming statistical benchmarks. In real‐time comparisons, the model's headline inflation nowcasts substantially outperform those from the Blue Chip consensus and the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Across all four inflation measures, the model's nowcasting accuracy is comparable to that of the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 931-968, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:5:p:931-968
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12401
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Amy Higgins & Randal Verbrugge, 2015. "Tracking Trend Inflation: Nonseasonally Adjusted Variants of the Median and Trimmed-Mean CPI," Working Papers (Old Series) 1527, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
    3. Patrick C. Higgins, 2014. "GDPNow: A Model for GDP "Nowcasting"," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
    5. Kim, Insu & Kim, Young Se, 2019. "Inattentive agents and inflation forecast error dynamics: A Bayesian DSGE approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht, 0. "Horizon confidence sets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-26.
    7. Garciga, Christian & Knotek II, Edward S., 2019. "Forecasting GDP growth with NIPA aggregates: In search of core GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1814-1828.
    8. Burcu Tunç & Burcu Çakmak & Cansu Gökçe Zeybek & Bruno Tissot, 2020. "Using financial accounts - a central banking perspective," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.),Using financial accounts, volume 51, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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