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An area-wide real-time database for the euro area

  • Giannone, Domenico
  • Henry, Jérôme
  • Lalik, Magdalena
  • Modugno, Michele

This paper describes how we constructed a real-time database for the euro area covering more than 200 series regularly published in the European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, as made available ahead of publication to the Governing Council members before their first meeting of the month. We describe the database in details and study the properties of the euro area real-time data flow and data revisions, also providing comparisons with the United States and Japan. We finally illustrate how such revisions can contribute to the uncertainty surrounding key macroeconomic ratios and the NAIRU. JEL Classification: C01, C82, E24, E58

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File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1145.pdf
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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1145.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101145
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  1. Mariagnese Branchi & Christian Dieden & Wim Haine & Csaba Horwáth & Andrew Kanutin & Linda Kezbere, 2007. "Analysis of revisions to general economic statistics," Occasional Paper Series 74, European Central Bank.
  2. Swanson, N.R., 1996. "Forecasting Using First Available Versus Fully Revised Economic Time Series data," Papers 4-96-7, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  3. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
  4. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
  5. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2003. "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 605-617, August.
  6. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 81-93.
  7. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  9. Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2010. "A monetary real-time conditional forecast of euro area inflation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 388-405.
  10. Croushore, Dean, 2006. "Forecasting with Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
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