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On the market impact of wind energy forecasts

  • Jónsson, Tryggvi
  • Pinson, Pierre
  • Madsen, Henrik
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    This paper presents an analysis of how day-ahead electricity spot prices are affected by day-ahead wind power forecasts. Demonstration of this relationship is given as a test case for the Western Danish price area of the Nord Pool's Elspot market. Impact on the average price behaviour is investigated as well as that on the distributional properties of the price. By using a non-parametric regression model to assess the effects of wind power forecasts on the average behaviour, the non-linearities and time variations in the relationship are captured well and the effects are shown to be quite substantial. Furthermore, by evaluating the distributional properties of the spot prices under different scenarios, the impact of the wind power forecasts on the price distribution is proved to be considerable. The conditional price distribution is moreover shown to be non-Gaussian. This implies that forecasting models for electricity spot prices for which parameters are estimated by a least squares techniques will not have Gaussian residuals. Hence the widespread assumption of Gaussian residuals from electricity spot price models is shown to be inadequate for these model types. The revealed effects are likely to be observable and qualitatively similar in other day-ahead electricity markets significantly penetrated by wind power.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V7G-4XM6K9W-1/2/a7cc50eee45f6b72d1e8dde5b912d77a
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 (March)
    Pages: 313-320

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:2:p:313-320
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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    1. Conejo, Antonio J. & Contreras, Javier & Espinola, Rosa & Plazas, Miguel A., 2005. "Forecasting electricity prices for a day-ahead pool-based electric energy market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 435-462.
    2. Kosater, Peter & Mosler, Karl, 2006. "Can Markov regime-switching models improve power-price forecasts? Evidence from German daily power prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(9), pages 943-958, September.
    3. Huisman, R. & Huurman, C. & Mahieu, R.J., 2007. "Hourly Electricity Prices in Day-Ahead Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-002-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    4. Moller, Jan Kloppenborg & Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg & Madsen, Henrik, 2008. "Time-adaptive quantile regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 1292-1303, January.
    5. Bent Jesper Christensen & Thomas Elgaard Jensen & Rune Mølgaard, 2007. "Market Power in Power Markets: Evidence from Forward Prices of Electricity," CREATES Research Papers 2007-30, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    6. Francis A. Longstaff & Ashley W. Wang, 2004. "Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1877-1900, 08.
    7. Boogert, Alexander & Dupont, Dominique, 2005. "On the effectiveness of the anti-gaming policy between the day-ahead and real-time electricity markets in The Netherlands," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 752-770, September.
    8. Skytte, Klaus, 1999. "The regulating power market on the Nordic power exchange Nord Pool: an econometric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 295-308, August.
    9. Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Smith, Michael, 2008. "Bayesian density forecasting of intraday electricity prices using multivariate skew t distributions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 710-727.
    10. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Kossmeier, Stephan & Obersteiner, Michael, 2004. "Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 87-106, January.
    11. Costa, Alexandre & Crespo, Antonio & Navarro, Jorge & Lizcano, Gil & Madsen, Henrik & Feitosa, Everaldo, 2008. "A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 1725-1744, August.
    12. Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 764-785.
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