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Risk factors in the formulation of day-ahead electricity prices: Evidence from the Spanish case

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  • Paschalidou, Eleftheria G.
  • Thomaidis, Nikolaos S.

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic connection between Spanish day-ahead electricity prices and various fundamental determinants, including average surface temperature, forecasted electricity demand, predicted renewable energy injection, natural gas futures prices and CO2 emission rights cost. Structural Dynamic Factor Models (SDFM) are employed to decompose each hourly price signal into systematic components linked to any of the fundamental indices mentioned above and unveil structural shocks moving the entire panel of variables. Empirical results indicate that Spanish day-ahead electricity prices have a strong fundamental basis; a great deal of their observed short- or long-run variations are explained by changes in temperature, load, renewable energy supply, natural gas and carbon permit cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Paschalidou, Eleftheria G. & Thomaidis, Nikolaos S., 2025. "Risk factors in the formulation of day-ahead electricity prices: Evidence from the Spanish case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:142:y:2025:i:c:s0140988324008119
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108102
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Day-ahead electricity market; Fundamental analysis; Structural dynamic factor models; Multi-level factor models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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