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Negative price spikes at power markets: the role of energy policy

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Gerster

    (RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research
    Ruhr Graduate School in Economics)

Abstract

In Germany, substantial drops in wholesale power prices have become a regular phenomenon. While such price drops have far-reaching implications for the functioning of the power market, their underlying determinants remain poorly understood. To fill this gap, we propose a Markov regime-switching model to investigate low-price events at the European Power Exchange. Our analysis focuses on the role of energy policies that promote renewable energies and have led to significant reductions of nuclear capacities after the Fukushima accident. We find that high electricity infeed from renewable sources increases negative price spike probabilities, while the decommissioning of nuclear plants under the Nuclear Moratorium had an opposing effect. Simulations of market outcomes under different energy policies indicate that reaching ambitious renewable energy targets increases the frequency of low-price events and compromises the financial viability of conventional generation units, while a nuclear phase-out or an increase in storage capacities mitigates these effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Gerster, 2016. "Negative price spikes at power markets: the role of energy policy," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 271-289, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:regeco:v:50:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11149-016-9311-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11149-016-9311-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Renewable energies; Nuclear phase-out; Day-ahead prices; Regime-switching models; Price spikes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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