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Common Unobserved Determinants of Intraday Electricity Prices

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  • Nikolaos S. Thomaidis
  • Gordon H. Dash
  • Nina Kajiji

Abstract

This paper employs multilevel factor modelling techniques to unravel systematic unobserved determinants of the intraday and interzonal price curve dynamics for the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) interconnection. These techniques make an explicit separation of global drivers from region-specific common factors, thereby facilitating the identification of the actual sources of co-variability. Our empirical findings confirm the hypothesis that the common unobserved determinants of power prices in the PJM interconnection obey a block structure, some of which affect different segments of our panel. We argue that a multilevel factor approach offers a more systematic and transparent representation of intertemporal and cross-sectional patterns in PJM electricity prices compared to alternative brute-force VARMAX parametrizations and the single-level factor models, which are often put forward in the literature as viable modelling alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos S. Thomaidis & Gordon H. Dash & Nina Kajiji, 2019. "Common Unobserved Determinants of Intraday Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(1_suppl), pages 211-232, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:40:y:2019:i:1_suppl:p:211-232
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.SI1.ntho
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Ergemen, Yunus Emre & Velasco, Carlos, 2017. "Estimation of fractionally integrated panels with fixed effects and cross-section dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 248-258.
    3. M. Pilar Muñoz & Cristina Corchero & F.-Javier Heredia, 2013. "Improving Electricity Market Price Forecasting with Factor Models for the Optimal Generation Bid," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 81(2), pages 289-306, August.
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