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The North American natural gas liquids markets are chaotic

Author

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  • Serletis, Apostolos
  • Gogas, Periklis

Abstract

In this paper we test for deterministic chaos (i.e., nonlinear deterministic processes which look random) in seven Mont Belview, Texas hydrocarbon markets, using monthly data from 1985:1 to 1996:12--the markets are those of ethane, propane, normal butane, iso-butane, naptha, crude oil, and natural gas. In doing so, we use the Lyapunov exponent estimator of Nychka, Ellner, Gallant, and McCaffrey (1992). We conclude that there is evidence consistent with a chaotic nonlinear generation process in all five natural gas liquids markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Serletis, Apostolos & Gogas, Periklis, 1999. "The North American natural gas liquids markets are chaotic," MPRA Paper 1576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1576
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    Cited by:

    1. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2016. "“Butterfly Effect" vs Chaos in Energy Futures Markets," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0209, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    2. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: Evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3205-3211, August.
    3. Aghababa, Hajar & Barnett, William A., 2016. "Dynamic structure of the spot price of crude oil: does time aggregation matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 227-237.
    4. Xu, Weijun & Sun, Qi & Xiao, Weilin, 2012. "A new energy model to capture the behavior of energy price processes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1585-1591.
    5. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Energy sector pricing: On the role of neglected nonlinearity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 492-502, May.
    6. repec:spt:apfiba:v:7:y:2017:i:4:f:7_4_2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2017. "“Chaos” In Energy And Commodity Markets: A Controversial Matter," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0218, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    8. Elder, John & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Long memory in energy futures prices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 146-155.
    9. Apostolos Serletis & Ioannis Andreadis, 2007. "Random Fractal Structures in North American Energy Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 18, pages 245-255 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2016. ""Butterfly Effect" vs Chaos in Energy Futures Markets," Papers 1610.05697, arXiv.org.
    11. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2016. ""Chaos" in energy and commodity markets: a controversial matter," Papers 1611.07432, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
    12. Barkoulas, John T. & Chakraborty, Atreya & Ouandlous, Arav, 2012. "A metric and topological analysis of determinism in the crude oil spot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 584-591.
    13. Jogeir Myklebust & Asgeir Tomasgard & Sjur Westgaard, 2010. "Forecasting gas component prices with multivariate structural time series models," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 34(2), pages 82-106, June.
    14. Wu, Y. & Zhang, D.Z., 2007. "Demand fluctuation and chaotic behaviour by interaction between customers and suppliers," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 250-259, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chaos; Natural Gas; Lyapunov exponent;

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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