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Returns and Volatility in the NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Market

In: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Apostolos Serletis

    (University of Calgary, Canada)

  • Asghar Shahmoradi

    (University of Calgary, Canada)

Abstract

The following sections are included:IntroductionThe DataModeling ReturnsModeling VolatilityConclusion

Suggested Citation

  • Apostolos Serletis & Asghar Shahmoradi, 2007. "Returns and Volatility in the NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Market," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 15, pages 193-204, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789812770462_0015
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    1. Gerald D. Gay & Tae‐Hyuk Kim, 1987. "An investigation into seasonality in the futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 169-181, April.
    2. Apostolos Serletis & Asghar Shahmoradi, 2007. "Futures Trading and the Storage of North American Natural Gas," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 8, pages 82-87, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Christopher K. Ma & Jeffrey M. Mercer & Matthew A. Walker, 1992. "Rolling over futures contracts: A note," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 203-217, April.
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    7. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    8. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
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    12. Richard Deaves & Itzhak Krinsky, 1992. "Risk Premiums and Efficiency in the Market for Crude Oil Futures," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 93-118.
    13. Day, Theodore E & Lewis, Craig M, 1997. "Initial Margin Policy and Stochastic Volatility in the Crude Oil Futures Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 303-332.
    14. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    15. Apostolos Serletis, 2007. "Is There an East-West Split in North American Natural Gas Markets?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 6, pages 59-72, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Mohammad Majand & Kenneth Yung, 1991. "A GARCH examination of the relationship between volume and price variability in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 613-621, October.
    17. David Kenyon & Kenneth Kling & Jim Jordan & William Seale & Nancy McCabe, 1987. "Factors affecting agricultural futures price variance," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 73-91, February.
    18. William M. Malick & Ronald W. Ward, 1987. "Stock effects and seasonality in the fcoj futures basis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 157-167, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. van Goor, Harm & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "Modeling natural gas price volatility: The case of the UK gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 126-134.
    2. Zuzanna Karolak, 2021. "Energy prices forecasting using nonlinear univariate models," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(6), pages 577-598.
    3. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The behaviour mechanism analysis of regional natural gas prices: A multi-scale perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 266-277.
    4. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2018. "On the interdependence of natural gas and stock markets under structural breaks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 149-161.
    5. Naomi Boyd, 2015. "Market making and risk management in options markets," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-27, April.
    6. Liang, Chao & Xia, Zhenglan & Lai, Xiaodong & Wang, Lu, 2022. "Natural gas volatility prediction: Fresh evidence from extreme weather and extended GARCH-MIDAS-ES model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Sun, Mei & Wang, Yaqi & Gao, Cuixia, 2016. "Visibility graph network analysis of natural gas price: The case of North American market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 1-11.
    8. Li, Yan & Chevallier, Julien & Wei, Yigang & Li, Jing, 2020. "Identifying price bubbles in the US, European and Asian natural gas market: Evidence from a GSADF test approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Ibrahim A. Onour, 2009. "Natural gas markets: how sensitive are they to crude oil price changes?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 33(2), pages 111-124, June.
    10. Yadong Pei & Chiou-Jye Huang & Yamin Shen & Mingyue Wang, 2023. "A Novel Model for Spot Price Forecast of Natural Gas Based on Temporal Convolutional Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-15, February.
    11. Wang, Zuyi & Kim, Man-Keun, 2022. "Price bubbles in oil & gas markets and their transfer," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity Markets; Natural Gas Markets; Crude Oil Markets; Forecasting Energy Prices; Energy Markets Volatility; Business Cycles and Energy Prices; Common Features in Energy Markets; Codependent Cycles in Energy Markets; Volatility Modeling in Energy Markets; Chaos; Fractals; and Random Modulations in Energy Markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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