Value at risk models for volatile emerging markets equity portfolios
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
- Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 2000.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Use of Extreme Value Theory in Risk Management,"
Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(2), pages 30-35, January.
- Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 1998. "Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Use of Extreme Value Theory in Risk Management," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-10, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 1998. "Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Use of Extreme Value Theory in Risk Management," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-081, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Vlaar, Peter J G & Palm, Franz C, 1993. "The Message in Weekly Exchange Rates in the European Monetary System: Mean Reversion, Conditional Heteroscedasticity, and Jumps," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 351-360, July.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Yong Bao & Burak Saltoglu, 2006. "Evaluating predictive performance of value-at-risk models in emerging markets: a reality check," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 101-128.
- Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Apr), pages 39-69.
- Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk & Ulugulyagci, Abdurrahman, 2003. "High volatility, thick tails and extreme value theory in value-at-risk estimation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 337-356, October.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
- Nelson, Daniel B & Cao, Charles Q, 1992. "Inequality Constraints in the Univariate GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 229-235, April.
- Keith Kuester & Stefan Mittnik & Marc S. Paolella, 2006. "Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 53-89.
- Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 33-55, March.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
- Assaf, A., 2009. "Extreme observations and risk assessment in the equity markets of MENA region: Tail measures and Value-at-Risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 109-116, June.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk, 2004. "Extreme value theory and Value-at-Risk: Relative performance in emerging markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 287-303.
- Aktham I. Maghyereh & Haitham A. Al-Zoubi, 2006. "Value-at-risk under extreme values: the relative performance in MENA emerging stock markets," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 154-172, July.
- McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993.
"Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-216, April.
- Pafka, Szilárd & Kondor, Imre, 2001.
"Evaluating the RiskMetrics methodology in measuring volatility and Value-at-Risk in financial markets,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 305-310.
- Szilard Pafka & Imre Kondor, 2001. "Evaluating the RiskMetrics Methodology in Measuring Volatility and Value-at-Risk in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0103107, arXiv.org.
- Brooks, Robert, 2007. "Power arch modelling of the volatility of emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 124-133, May.
- Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
- Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Mishra, Santosh, 2004. "Forecasting volatility: A reality check based on option pricing, utility function, value-at-risk, and predictive likelihood," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 629-645.
- McMillan, David G. & Kambouroudis, Dimos, 2009. "Are RiskMetrics forecasts good enough? Evidence from 31 stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 117-124, June.
- Jaeun Shin, 2005. "Stock Returns and Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 4(1), pages 31-43, April.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Karmakar, Madhusudan & Shukla, Girja K., 2015. "Managing extreme risk in some major stock markets: An extreme value approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-25.
- Chlebus Marcin, 2017.
"EWS-GARCH: New Regime Switching Approach to Forecast Value-at-Risk,"
Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 3(50), pages 01-25, December.
- Marcin Chlebus, 2016. "EWS-GARCH: New Regime Switching Approach to Forecast Value-at-Risk," Working Papers 2016-06, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Qiang Meng & Xiaobo Qu & Kum Thong Yong & Yoke Heng Wong, 2011. "QRA Model‐Based Risk Impact Analysis of Traffic Flow in Urban Road Tunnels," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(12), pages 1872-1882, December.
- Adeel Nasir & Kanwal Iqbal Khan & Mário Nuno Mata & Pedro Neves Mata & Jéssica Nunes Martins, 2021. "Optimisation of Time-Varying Asset Pricing Models with Penetration of Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-38, February.
- Aloui, Chaker & Hamida, Hela ben, 2014. "Modelling and forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall for GCC stock markets: Do long memory, structural breaks, asymmetry, and fat-tails matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 349-380.
- Marcin Chlebus, 2016. "Can Lognormal, Weibull or Gamma Distributions Improve the EWS-GARCH Value-at-Risk Forecasts?," FindEcon Chapters: Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-Making, in: Magdalena Osińska (ed.), Statistical Review, vol. 63, 2016, 3, edition 1, volume 63, chapter 4, pages 329-350, University of Lodz.
- Owusu Junior, Peterson & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Tweneboah, George & Asafo-Adjei, Emmanuel, 2022. "GAS and GARCH based value-at-risk modeling of precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
- Maciel, Leandro, 2021. "A new approach to portfolio management in the Brazilian equity market: Does assets efficiency level improve performance?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 38-56.
- Chaker Aloui & Hela BEN HAMIDA, 2015. "Estimation and Performance Assessment of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Based on Long-Memory GARCH-Class Models," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 30-54, January.
- Rua, António & Nunes, Luis C., 2012.
"A wavelet-based assessment of market risk: The emerging markets case,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 84-92.
- António Rua & Luís Catela Nunes, 2012. "A wavelet-based assessment of market risk: The emerging markets case," Working Papers w201203, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Bucevska Vesna, 2013. "An Empirical Evaluation of GARCH Models in Value-at-Risk Estimation: Evidence from the Macedonian Stock Exchange," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 4(1), pages 49-64, March.
- Maghyereh Aktham Issa & Awartani Basel, 2012. "Modeling and Forecasting Value-at-Risk in the UAE Stock Markets: The Role of Long Memory, Fat Tails and Asymmetries in Return Innovations," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, August.
- Chaker Aloui, 2015. "Volatility forecasting and risk management in some MENA stock markets: a nonlinear framework," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 160-192.
- Ibrahim Ergen, 2015. "Two-step methods in VaR prediction and the importance of fat tails," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 1013-1030, June.
- Borer, Daniel & Perera, Devmali & Fauzi, Fitriya & Chau, Trinh Nguyen, 2023. "Identifying systemic risk of assets during international financial crises using Value at Risk elasticities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
- Ra l de Jes s-Guti rrez & Roberto J. Santill n-Salgado, 2019. "Conditional Extreme Values Theory and Tail-related Risk Measures: Evidence from Latin American Stock Markets," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 127-141.
- Slim, Skander & Koubaa, Yosra & BenSaïda, Ahmed, 2017. "Value-at-Risk under Lévy GARCH models: Evidence from global stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 30-53.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2011. "Are realized volatility models good candidates for alternative Value at Risk prediction strategies?," MPRA Paper 30364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Chrétien, Stéphane & Coggins, Frank, 2010. "Performance and conservatism of monthly FHS VaR: An international investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 323-333, December.
- Timotheos Angelidis & Alexandros Benos & Stavros Degiannakis, 2007.
"A robust VaR model under different time periods and weighting schemes,"
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 187-201, February.
- Angelidis, Timotheos & Benos, Alexandros & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2007. "A Robust VaR Model under Different Time Periods and Weighting Schemes," MPRA Paper 80466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Dimitrakopoulos, Dimitris N., 2011. "Market risk model selection and medium-term risk with limited data: Application to ocean tanker freight markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 258-268.
- Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
- Chebbi, Ali & Hedhli, Amel, 2022. "Revisiting the accuracy of standard VaR methods for risk assessment: Using the Copula–EVT multidimensional approach for stock markets in the MENA region," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 430-445.
- Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2014. "Realized volatility models and alternative Value-at-Risk prediction strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 101-116.
- Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & McAleer, Michael & Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio & Santos, Paulo Araújo, 2013.
"GFC-robust risk management under the Basel Accord using extreme value methodologies,"
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 223-237.
- Santos, P.A. & Jiménez-Martín, J.A. & McAleer, M.J. & Pérez-Amaral, T., 2011. "GFC-Robust Risk Management Under the Basel Accord Using Extreme Value Methodologies," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2011-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Michael McAleer & Paulo Araújo Santos & Juan-à ngel Jiménez-MartÃn & Teodosio Pérez Amaral, 2011. "GFC-Robust Risk Management Under the Basel Accord Using Extreme Value Methodologies," KIER Working Papers 782, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Perez Amaral & Paulo Araujo Santos, 2013. "GFC-Robust Risk Management under the Basel Accord using Extreme Value Methodologies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-070/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Paulo Araújo Santos & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez Amaral, 2011. "GFC-Robust Risk Management Under the Basel Accord Using Extreme Value Methodologies," Working Papers in Economics 11/28, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Paulo Araújo Santos & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez Amaral, 2011. "GFC-Robust Risk Management Under the Basel Accord Using Extreme Value Methodologies," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2011-27, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Karmakar, Madhusudan & Shukla, Girja K., 2015. "Managing extreme risk in some major stock markets: An extreme value approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-25.
- Carol Alexander & Emese Lazar, 2009. "Modelling Regime‐Specific Stock Price Volatility," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 761-797, December.
- Abad, Pilar & Benito, Sonia, 2013. "A detailed comparison of value at risk estimates," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 258-276.
- Maghyereh Aktham Issa & Awartani Basel, 2012. "Modeling and Forecasting Value-at-Risk in the UAE Stock Markets: The Role of Long Memory, Fat Tails and Asymmetries in Return Innovations," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, August.
- Cifter, Atilla, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(12), pages 2356-2367.
- Nieto, María Rosa & Ruiz Ortega, Esther, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws087326, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2011. "Forecasting petroleum futures markets volatility: The role of regimes and market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 321-337, March.
- Szubzda Filip & Chlebus Marcin, 2019.
"Comparison of Block Maxima and Peaks Over Threshold Value-at-Risk models for market risk in various economic conditions,"
Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 6(53), pages 70-85, January.
- Szubzda Filip & Chlebus Marcin, 2019. "Comparison of Block Maxima and Peaks Over Threshold Value-at-Risk models for market risk in various economic conditions," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 6(53), pages 70-85, January.
- Ñíguez, Trino-Manuel & Perote, Javier, 2017. "Moments expansion densities for quantifying financial risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 53-69.
- Gonzalo Cortazar & Alejandro Bernales & Diether Beuermann, 2005. "Methodology and Implementation of Value-at-Risk Measures in Emerging Fixed-Income Markets with Infrequent Trading," Finance 0512030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "The impact of Euro through time: Exchange rate dynamics under different regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1375-1408, January.
More about this item
Keywords
Emerging stock markets Risk management Value at Risk;Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:50:y:2010:i:4:p:515-526. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.