Evaluating the RiskMetrics methodology in measuring volatility and Value-at-Risk in financial markets
We analyze the performance of RiskMetrics, a widely used methodology for measuring market risk. Based on the assumption of normally distributed returns, the RiskMetrics model completely ignores the presence of fat tails in the distribution function, which is an important feature of financial data. Nevertheless, it was commonly found that RiskMetrics performs satisfactorily well, and therefore the technique has become widely used in the financial industry. We find, however, that the success of RiskMetrics is the artifact of the choice of the risk measure. First, the outstanding performance of volatility estimates is basically due to the choice of a very short (one-period ahead) forecasting horizon. Second, the satisfactory performance in obtaining Value-at-Risk by simply multiplying volatility with a constant factor is mainly due to the choice of the particular significance level.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 299 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laurent Laloux & Pierre Cizeau & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Potters, 1998. "Noise dressing of financial correlation matrices," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500051, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- Vasiliki Plerou & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Bernd Rosenow & Luis A. Nunes Amaral & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "Universal and non-universal properties of cross-correlations in financial time series," Papers cond-mat/9902283, arXiv.org.
- Nelson, Daniel B., 1992. "Filtering and forecasting with misspecified ARCH models I : Getting the right variance with the wrong model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 61-90.
- Galluccio, Stefano & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe & Potters, Marc, 1998.
"Rational decisions, random matrices and spin glasses,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 449-456.
- Stefano Galluccio & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Potters, 1998. "Rational Decisions, Random Matrices and Spin Glasses," Papers cond-mat/9801209, arXiv.org.
- Stefano Galluccio & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Marc Potters, 1998. "Rational decisions, random matrices and spin glasses," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500054, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- Daniel B. Nelson, 1994. "Asymptotically Optimal Smoothing with ARCH Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:299:y:2001:i:1:p:305-310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.