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High volatility, thick tails and extreme value theory in value-at-risk estimation

  • Gencay, Ramazan
  • Selcuk, Faruk
  • Ulugulyagci, Abdurrahman

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Insurance: Mathematics and Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 337-356

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Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:33:y:2003:i:2:p:337-356
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  1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  2. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "New Methods in Statistical Economics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 421.
  3. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  4. Danielsson, Jon & Morimoto, Yuji, 2000. "Forecasting Extreme Financial Risk: A Critical Analysis of Practical Methods for the Japanese Market," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 18(2), pages 25-48, December.
  5. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
  6. Loretan, M. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1992. "Testing the Covariance Stationarity of Heavy-Tailed Time Series: An Overview of the Theory with Applications to Several Financial Datasets," Working papers 9208, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  7. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November.
  8. Levich, Richard M., 1985. "Empirical studies of exchange rates: Price behavior, rate determination and market efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 979-1040 Elsevier.
  9. Michel Dacorogna & Höskuldur Ari Hauksson & Thomas Domenig & Ulrich Müller & Gennady Samorodnitsky, 2001. "Multivariate extremes, aggregation and risk estimation," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 P2, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  11. Hols, Martien C A B & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "The Limiting Distribution of Extremal Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 287-302, July-Sept.
  12. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
  13. McNeil, Alexander J., 1997. "Estimating the Tails of Loss Severity Distributions Using Extreme Value Theory," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(01), pages 117-137, May.
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