Predicting Tail-related Risk Measures: The Consequences of Using GARCH Filters for non-GARCH Data
We investigate the consequences for value-at-risk and expected short-fall purposes of using a GARCH filter on various mis-specified processes. We show that careful investigation of the adequacy of the GARCH filter is necessary since under mis-specifications a GARCH filter appears to do more harm than good. Using an unconditional non filtered tail estimate appears to perform satisfactorily for dependent data with a degree of dependency corresponding to actual market conditions.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 40 bd. du Pont d'Arve, Case postale 3, CH - 1211 Geneva 4|
Phone: 41 22 / 312 09 61
Fax: 41 22 / 312 10 26
Web page: http://www.swissfinanceinstitute.ch
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984.
"Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory,"
Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 681-700, May.
- Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1981. "Pseudo maximum likelihood methods : theory," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8129, CEPREMAP.
- Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Testing for differences in the tails of stock-market returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 559-581, December.
- Michael Rockinger & Eric Jondeau, 2001. "Testing for differences in the tails of stock-market returns," Working Papers hal-00601480, HAL.
- ROCKINGER, Michael & JONDEAU, Eric, 2001. "Testing for differences in the tails of stock-market returns," Les Cahiers de Recherche 739, HEC Paris.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
- Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "Moments of Markov switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May.
- Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Moments of Markov Switching Models," FMG Discussion Papers dp323, Financial Markets Group.
- Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
- Buhlmann, Peter & Kunsch, Hans R., 1999. "Block length selection in the bootstrap for time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 295-310, September.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Gray's 1996 Regime Switching GARCH paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00080, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Thomas Lux, 2001. "The limiting extremal behaviour of speculative returns: an analysis of intra-daily data from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 299-315.
- Lux, T., "undated". "The Limiting Extremal Behaviour of Speculative Returns: An Analysis of Intra-Daily Data from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange," Discussion Paper Serie B 436, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
- Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-593, Sept.-Oct.
- Dueker, Michael J, 1997. "Markov Switching in GARCH Processes and Mean-Reverting Stock-Market Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 26-34, January.
- Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Markov switching in GARCH processes and mean reverting stock market volatility," Working Papers 1994-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
- Dennis W. Jansen & Casper de Vries, 1988. "On the frequency of large stock returns: putting booms and busts into perspective," Working Papers 1989-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
- Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-216, April.
- Huntley Schaller & Simon Van Norden, 1997. "Regime switching in stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 177-191.
- Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Regime Switching in Stock Market Returns," Econometrics 9502002, EconWPA.
- Jesus Gonzalo, 2004. "Which Extreme Values Are Really Extreme?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(3), pages 349-369.
- Jose Olmo & Jesus Gonzalo, 2004. "Which Extreme Values are Really Extremes?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 144, Econometric Society.
- Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to estimate Hamilton-Susmel Markov Switching ARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00083, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Carmela Quintos & Zhenhong Fan & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Structural Change Tests in Tail Behaviour and the Asian Crisis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 633-663.
- Dimitris Politis & Halbert White, 2004. "Automatic Block-Length Selection for the Dependent Bootstrap," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 53-70.
- Hsing, Tailen, 1991. "Estimating the parameters of rare events," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 117-139, February.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- de Haan, Laurens & Resnick, Sidney I. & Rootzén, Holger & de Vries, Casper G., 1989. "Extremal behaviour of solutions to a stochastic difference equation with applications to arch processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 213-224, August.
- Hols, Martien C A B & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "The Limiting Distribution of Extremal Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 287-302, July-Sept.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)