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Forecasting volatility: A reality check based on option pricing, utility function, value-at-risk, and predictive likelihood

  • Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria
  • Lee, Tae-Hwy
  • Mishra, Santosh

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169-2070(03)00142-0
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 20 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 629-645

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:20:y:2004:i:4:p:629-645
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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  1. Lopez, Jose A, 2001. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Volatility Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 87-109, March.
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  7. Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2002. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4n99t4wz, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  8. Christoffersen, Peter F & Diebold, Francis X, 1996. "Further Results on Forecasting and Model Selection under Asymmetric Loss," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 561-71, Sept.-Oct.
  9. West, Kenneth D & McCracken, Michael W, 1998. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 817-40, November.
  10. Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1992. "Temporal aggregation of GARCH processes," Discussion Paper 1992-40, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  11. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
  12. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
  13. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2000. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 12-22, February.
  14. Drost, F.C. & Werker, B.J.M., 1994. "Closing the GARCH gap : Continuous time GARCH modeling," Discussion Paper 1994-2, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  15. Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1993. "A utility based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 441, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  17. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
  18. Ruiz, Esther, 1994. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 289-306, July.
  19. Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001. "An Unbiased and Powerful Test for Superior Predictive Ability," Working Papers 2001-06, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  20. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  21. Hahn, Jinyong, 1995. "Bootstrapping Quantile Regression Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 105-121, February.
  22. Mc Cracken, Michael W., 2000. "Robust out-of-sample inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 195-223, December.
  23. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 77-102.
  24. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  25. Clive W.J. Granger, 1999. "Outline of forecast theory using generalized cost functions," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 161-173.
  26. Robert F. Engle & Alex Kane & Jaesun Noh, 1993. "Index-Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and the Value of Accurate Variance Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 4519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  28. Joel L. Horowitz, 1996. "Bootstrap Methods for Median Regression Models," Econometrics 9608004, EconWPA.
  29. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 1998. "Horizon Problems and Extreme Events in Financial Risk Management," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-16, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  30. Duan, Jin-Chuan, 1997. "Augmented GARCH (p,q) process and its diffusion limit," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 97-127, July.
  31. Francis X. Diebold & Andrew Hickman & Atsushi Inoue & Til Schuermann, 1997. "Converting 1-Day Volatility to h-Day Volatitlity: Scaling by Root-h is Worse Than You Think," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  32. Horowitz, Joel L., 2002. "Bootstrap critical values for tests based on the smoothed maximum score estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 141-167, December.
  33. Gita Persand & Chris Brooks, 2003. "Volatility forecasting for risk management," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-22.
  34. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  35. Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Fitzenberger, Bernd, 1998. "The moving blocks bootstrap and robust inference for linear least squares and quantile regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 235-287, February.
  37. Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1993. "Temporal aggregation of GARCH processes," Other publications TiSEM 0642fb61-c7f4-4281-b484-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  38. Drost, F.C. & Werker, B.J.M., 1996. "Closing the GARCH gap : Continuous time GARCH modeling," Other publications TiSEM c3d29817-403a-4ad1-9295-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  39. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
  40. Spyros Skouras, 2001. "Decisionmetrics: A Decision-Based Approach to Econometric Modeling," Working Papers 01-11-064, Santa Fe Institute.
  41. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  42. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
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