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GFC-Robust Risk Management Under the Basel Accord Using Extreme Value Methodologies

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  • Michael McAleer

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, Complutense University of Madrid, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

  • Paulo Araújo Santos

    (Escola Superior de Gestão e Tecnologia de Santarém and Center of Statistics and Applications University of Lisbon)

  • Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín

    (Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid)

  • Teodosio Pérez Amaral

    (Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid)

Abstract

In McAleer et al. (2010b), a robust risk management strategy to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was proposed under the Basel II Accord by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast was based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility models. In this paper we provide further evidence on the suitability of the median as a GFC-robust strategy by using an additional set of new extreme value forecasting models and by extending the sample period for comparison. These extreme value models include DPOT and Conditional EVT. Such models might be expected to be useful in explaining financial data, especially in the presence of extreme shocks that arise during a GFC. Our empirical results confirm that the median remains GFC-robust even in the presence of these new extreme value models. This is illustrated by using the S&P500 index before, during and after the 2008-09 GFC. We investigate the performance of a variety of single and combined VaR forecasts in terms of daily capital requirements and violation penalties under the Basel II Accord, as well as other criteria, including several tests for independence of the violations. The strategy based on the median, or more generally, on combined forecasts of single models, is straightforward to incorporate into existing computer software packages that are used by banks and other financial institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael McAleer & Paulo Araújo Santos & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Teodosio Pérez Amaral, 2011. "GFC-Robust Risk Management Under the Basel Accord Using Extreme Value Methodologies," KIER Working Papers 782, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:782
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Ju-Ting Tang & Teodosio Pérez Amaral, 2013. "Risk Modelling and Management: An Overview," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-22, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    2. repec:eee:revfin:v:34:y:2017:i:c:p:86-98 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value-at-Risk (VaR); DPOT; daily capital charges; robust forecasts; violation penalties; optimizing strategy; aggressive risk management; conservative risk management; Basel; global financial crisis.;

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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