Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets
Using daily data from March 2001 to June 2005, we estimate a VAR-BEKK model and find evidence of return and volatility spillovers between the German, the Dutch and the British forward electricity markets. We apply Hafner and Herwartz [2006, Journal of International Money and Finance 25, 719-740] Volatility Impulse Response Function (VIRF) to quantify the impact of shock on expected conditional volatility. We observe that a shock has a high positive impact only if its size is large compared to the current level of volatility. The impact of shocks are usually not persistent, which may be a consequence of the non-storability of power. Finally, we estimate the density of the VIRF at different forecast horizons. These fitted distributions are asymmetric and show that large increases in expected conditional volatilities are possible even if their probability is low. These results have interesting implications for market participants whose risk management policy depends on option prices which themselves depend on the characteristics of volatility.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lester Hadsell, Achla Marathe and Hany A. Shawky, 2004. "Estimating the Volatility of Wholesale Electricity Spot Prices in the US," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 23-40.
- G. Geoffrey Booth & Mustafa Chowdhury & Teppo Martikainen & Yiuman Tse, 1997. "Intraday Volatility in International Stock Index Futures Markets: Meteor Showers or Heat Waves?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(11), pages 1564-1576, November.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Andrew C. Worthington & Adam Kay-Spratley & Helen Higgs, 2002.
"Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: A multivariate GARCH analysis,"
School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series
114, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- Worthington, Andrew & Kay-Spratley, Adam & Higgs, Helen, 2005. "Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 337-350, March.
- Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
- Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq & Ozfidan, Ozkan, 2002. "Volatility transmission in the oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 525-538, November.
- Huisman, R. & Huurman, C. & Mahieu, R.J., 2007.
"Hourly Electricity Prices in Day-Ahead Markets,"
ERIM Report Series Research in Management
ERS-2007-002-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Helyette Geman & A. Roncoroni, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," Post-Print halshs-00144198, HAL.
- Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July.
- Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
- Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Juan Ignacio & Escribano, Álvaro & Villaplana, Pablo, 2002.
"Modeling electricity prices: international evidence,"
UC3M Working papers. Economics
we022708, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011. "Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & M. Angeles Carnero, 2005.
"Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
05-091/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius & Carnero, M. Angeles, 2007. "Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMAGARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 16-27, March.
- Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, 02.
- M. T. Barlow, 2002. "A Diffusion Model For Electricity Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 287-298.
- Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 2003. "The economic value of volatility timing using "realized" volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 473-509, March.
- Matteo Pelagatti & Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Fabio Baldi, 2007.
"A Robust Multivariate Long Run Analysis of European Electricity Prices,"
2007.103, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti & Fabio Baldi, 2007. "A robust multivariate long run analysis of European electricity prices," Working Papers 20070901, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/1433 is not listed on IDEAS
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003.
"Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility,"
Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," NBER Working Papers 8160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Labys, Paul, 2002. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Working Papers 02-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
- Zachmann, Georg, 2008. "Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1659-1671, July.
- Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
- Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2004. "On the validity of the Jarque-Bera normality test in conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 307-312, June.
- Goto, Mika & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2004. "Understanding Electricity Price Volatility within and across Markets," Working Paper Series 2004-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
- Kalvinder Shields & Nilss Olekalns & Ãlan T. Henry & Chris Brooks, 2005.
"Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 362-370, May.
- Kalvinder Shields & Nilss Olekalns & Ólan T. Henry & Chris Brooks, 2003. "Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 870, The University of Melbourne.
- Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti & Fabio Baldi, 2006. "Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Prices in Europe," Working Papers 20061001, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica.
- Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 1999. "Cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices: insights on transmission efficiency in the western US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 435-448, October.
- Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006.
"Volatility impulse responses for multivariate GARCH models: An exchange rate illustration,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 719-740, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Hafner-Herwartz volatility impulse response functions," Statistical Software Components RTZ00183, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2005.
"Extreme value theory and extremely large electricity price changes,"
International Review of Economics & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-55.
- Byström, Hans, 2001. "Extreme Value Theory and Extremely Large Electricity Price Changes," Working Papers 2001:19, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-38.
- B. Ricky Rambharat & Anthony E. Brockwell & Duane J. Seppi, 2005. "A threshold autoregressive model for wholesale electricity prices," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(2), pages 287-299.
- Figlewski, Stephen, 1984. " Hedging Performance and Basis Risk in Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 657-69, July.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
- Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
- Hélyette Geman & Andrea Roncoroni, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1225-1262, May.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993.
" Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Severin Borenstein, 2002. "The Trouble With Electricity Markets: Understanding California's Restructuring Disaster," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 191-211, Winter.
- Lester Hadsell, 2006. "A TARCH examination of the return volatility-volume relationship in electricity futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 893-901.
- Lin, Wen-Ling, 1997. "Impulse Response Function for Conditional Volatility in GARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 15-25, January.
- Serletis Apostolos & Shahmoradi Akbar, 2006. "Measuring and Testing Natural Gas and Electricity Markets Volatility: Evidence from Alberta's Deregulated Markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-20, September.
- Dempster, Gregory & Isaacs, Justin & Smith, Narin, 2008. "Price discovery in restructured electricity markets," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 250-259, May.
- Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 81-101, January.
- Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:4:p:758-770. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.