IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A robust multivariate long run analysis of European electricity prices

  • Bruno Bosco
  • Lucia Parisio
  • Matteo Pelagatti
  • Fabio Baldi

This paper analyses the interdependencies existing in wholesale electricity prices in six major European countries. The results of our robust multivariate long run dynamic analysis reveal the presence of four highly integrated central European markets (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria). The trend shared by these four electricity markets appears to be common also to gas prices, but not to oil prices. The existence of long term dynamics among electricity prices and between electricity prices and gas prices may prove to be important for long term hedging operations to be conducted even in countries where well established and liquid electricity derivatives markets are not present. Since standard unit root and cointegration tests are not robust to the peculiar characteristics of electricity prices time series, we adapt and further develop a battery of robust inference procedures that should assure the reliability of our results.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: First version, September 2007
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica in its series Working Papers with number 20070901.

in new window

Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mis:wpaper:20070901
Contact details of provider: Postal: Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi 8, 20126 Milano
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  2. Niels Haldrup & Morten O. Nielsen, 2004. "A Regime Switching Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Economics Working Papers 2004-2, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
  4. Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2005. "Extreme value theory and extremely large electricity price changes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-55.
  5. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
  6. de Jong, Robert M. & Amsler, Christine & Schmidt, Peter, 2007. "A robust version of the KPSS test based on indicators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 311-333, April.
  7. Andre Lucas, 1998. "Inference on cointegrating ranks using lr and lm tests based on pseudo-likelihoods," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 185-214.
  8. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald, 2003. "Regime jumps in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 425-434, September.
  9. H. Peter Boswijk, 2000. "Testing for a Unit Root with Near-Integrated Volatility," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1101, Econometric Society.
  10. Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 81-101, January.
  11. Lucas, André, 1997. "Cointegration Testing Using Pseudolikelihood Ratio Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 149-169, April.
  12. Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
  13. Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & M. Angeles Carnero, 2005. "Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-091/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  14. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
  15. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
  16. Lucas, Andre, 1995. "An outlier robust unit root test with an application to the extended Nelson-Plosser data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 153-173.
  17. Juan Toro & Natalia Fabra, 2002. "Price Wars and Collusion in the Spanish Electricity Market," Economics Series Working Papers 136, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  18. Miguel Arranz & Alvaro Escribano, 2004. "Outliers - robust ECM cointegration tests based on the trend components," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 243-266, December.
  19. Georg Zachmann, 2005. "Convergence of Electricity Wholesale Prices in Europe?: A Kalman Filter Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 512, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  20. Harris, David, 1997. "Principal Components Analysis of Cointegrated Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(04), pages 529-557, August.
  21. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  22. Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti, 2007. "Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Prices in Italy: An Empirical Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 13(4), pages 415-432, November.
  23. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  24. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  25. Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1998. "Outlier Detection in Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 459-68, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mis:wpaper:20070901. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Matteo Pelagatti)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.