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Multifractal cross-correlation analysis in electricity spot market

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  • Fan, Qingju
  • Li, Dan

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the multiscale cross-correlations between electricity price and trading volume in Czech market based on a newly developed algorithm, called Multifractal Cross-Correlation Analysis (MFCCA). The new algorithm is a natural multifractal generalization of the Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and is sensitive to cross-correlation structure and free from limitations of other algorithms. By considering the original sign of the cross-covariance, it allows us to properly quantify and detect the subtle characteristics of two simultaneous recorded time series. First, the multifractality and the long range anti-persistent auto-correlations of price return and trading volume variation are confirmed using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA). Furthermore, we show that there exist long-range anti-persistent cross-correlations between price return and trading volume variation by MFCCA. And we also identify that the cross-correlations disappear on the level of relative small fluctuations. In order to obtain deeper insight into the dynamics of the electricity market, we analyze the relation between generalized Hurst exponent and the multifractal cross-correlation scaling exponent λq. We find that the difference between the generalized Hurst exponent and the multifractal cross-correlation scaling exponent is significantly different for smaller fluctuation, which indicates that the multifractal character of cross-correlations resembles more each other for electricity price and trading volume on the level of large fluctuations and weakens for the smaller ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Qingju & Li, Dan, 2015. "Multifractal cross-correlation analysis in electricity spot market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 17-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:429:y:2015:i:c:p:17-27
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.065
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